Canadian Federal Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
Chicoutimi-Le Fjord

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
André Harvey
Bloc Québécois:
Noël Tremblay
Canadian Alliance:
Douglas Schroeder-Tabah
New Democratic Party:
Alain Ranger
Mauril Desbiens

André Harvey

Previous Result:

Surrounding Ridings:

Avg Household Income
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Submitted Information
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13/10/00 JL Email:
André Harvey is very popular. He was elected for PC party in 1984, 1988 and 1997. I think the Bloc finish second and the Tories third.
20/10/00 Simon D. Email:
Too close. Harvey is in trouble in this riding. The people in Chicoutimi had not appreciate the defection of Mr. Harvey from the PC to the liberals. 3 way race: Bloc, liberal and PC's.
22/10/00 A.S. Email:
When we're talking about the Saguenay region, to be a sitting Liberal in the BQ era is a dicey proposition; representing Charest and representing Chretien are two different things. Though who knows, Harvey could also be the David Kilgour of the Saguenay...
25/10/00 Brad N. Email:
Okay, well one thing is almost for sure, and it's that this riding is not going Liberal. Has anyone looked at the numbers from '97? The Liberals got an astounding 11% of the vote. The riding also overwhelmingly supports separatism as in the Referendum it voted nearly 70% "Yes" (a margin of victory of 36% over the "No"s) In '97 the PCs took this one with a mere 0.74% of the vote (~300 votes) over the Bloc. It is plainly obvious that they wer not voting for a Liberal gov't and despite the fact that long time MP André Harvey has crossed the floor the Liberals will not win here. The Tory-turned-Grit takes some of his supporters with him meaning it will split the PC/Liberal vote and allow the Bloc an easy win (unless the PCs have a superstar candidate). Count this one a BQ seat.
26/10/00 Tobias EMAIL:
I lived in this area for a while and had an "Andre Harvey" discussion with a local. In 1993 he lost to the Bloc but it was very close. He won in 1997 but only by a small margin. I really don't think he won in '97 because Charest was the leader, it's just Harvey himself is very popular (an ex Chicoutimi alderman). However I don't think his change to the Liberals will help his chances much, people don't know how to take him now. And I really don't think the Liberal message of a strong federal government is attractive to the people of this area of Canada. Furthermore, there is somewhat of a scandal with the Bloc candidate. The local riding association nominated someone yet Duceppe appointed another person to run. I really think the Bloc smell blood here.
30/10/00 JRL 2927 1845 1083
Harvey is gone. He might be (or used to be?) popular, the last time the Liberals could manage to get at least 30% of the vote in Chicoutimi was back in 1980, when everyone and their dogs in Quebec were voting Liberals. The Grits finished a distant third the last two elections, the Tories have virtually no support in Quebec, the area votes PQ provincially and BQ federally. The Bloc will win this seat. If they don't, it's gonna be a long night for them.
15/11/00 Christopher J. Currie
For running in Chicoutimi as a Liberal, Andre Harvey automatically wins my "most courage" award for this election. It's anyone's guess whether he'll hold onto the seat or not, though I can't help but wonder if the absence of a Tory candidate here will improve his chances. If he does hold on, I imagine that Chretien will have a few more maverick-induced headaches to worry about.
20/11/00 WJM Email:
A poll commissioned for the Progrès-Dimanche, conducted by UniMarketing, showed André Harvey comfortably in the lead over Bloquiste Noël Tremblay.
20/11/00 WJM
André Harvey is 8 or 9 points ahead in the polls in his riding, in the Saguenay heartland of the Bloc and sovereignty movement. If he can retain his seat here as a Liberal, the other former Tories now running as Liberals shouldn't have much problem, especially with the BQ and Liberals running neck and neck.
22/11/00 Ghislain Boudreau
André Harvey will win again his riding as a Liberal. Polls in the region tend to show either Harvey leading by a significant margin, or the Bloc candidate by a small margin... which in Quebec politics means a Liberal victory because many federalists are scared to tell the pollsters for whom they'll vote. In addition, vote-splitting will probably be an issue, but on the sovereignty side this time, as there is an independent separatist candidate and no Tory candidate in this riding.
26/11/00 JFB Email:
André Bachand va être réélu. Les Bloquistes n'ont pas accepté le choix du candidat par Gilles Duceppe. Plusieurs bloquistes vont voter Libéral par protestation.
26/11/00 YJ Email:
A journalist in La Presse wrote that the Bloc's internal poll shows André Harvey holding his seat. "Les sondages internes du Bloc annoncent que ce comté restera entre les mains du libéral transfuge André Harvey." La Presse, Martin Pelchat

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Last Updated 27 November 2000

© 2000 Milton Chan
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