Canadian Federal Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Rt Hon Jean Chrétien
Bloc Québécois:
François Marchand
Canadian Alliance:
Jean-Guy Mercier
Progressive Conservative Party:
Pierre Blais
New Democratic Party:
Raymond Chase
Communist Party:
Sylvain Archambault

Rt Hon Jean Chrétien

Previous Result:

Surrounding Ridings:

Avg Household Income
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11/10/00 L.O. Email:
When the Prime Minister of Canada wins his seat by less than 2000 votes, there could be trouble on the horizon. The Bloc want to run a strong candidate here. Chretien may have been able to stave off trouble in his riding last time, but that was before Bill c-20 and before he had so much negative attention put on his riding with RCMP investigations. A PM has lost their seat before. I think it will happen again.
11/10/00 Don MakAskill Email:
The Clarity Bill played well wehre I'm from, but the PM should have thought more about his own riding. He also should have watched out for making the voters there look'll be close!
13/10/00 A.S. Email:
I'm not going so far as to predict a certain Bloq victory, though Chretien had a very close call last time--indeed, it's odd that I haven't yet heard about threats within his own riding this time around (calm before the storm?). Somehow, it's more the sort of place that'd get snapped up by the Bloq lickety split following a Chretien resignation (shades of Charest's Sherbrooke). But because St Maurice'd be a likely BQ natural if not for the PM, this remains worth monitoring...
14/10/00 Richard Email:
Anyone who says that the Prime Minister is going somewhere on election night has been taking too many of George W's drugs. Chretien has been a strong advocate of his riding, especially in the last couple of years. He is known as the scrapper from Shawinigan. He had tough fights before and triumphed. He will definitely win on election night.
31/10/00 D.S EMAIL_YES = selected
Frankly, i can see a Bloc victory here. French Quebecers are fed up with Chretien in general. He is not an attractive candidate and in the '97 election, he barely won this seat. I think that Quebecers want to send Chretien a message and a strong Bloc candidate will be that.
01/11/00 Christopher J. Currie
Chretien's scare in 1997 was probably related to the fact that he was facing a credible Bloc opponent (a former cabinet minister, if I'm not mistaken). This time, that's probably not going to happen. Chretien's success in this Bloc-leaning area can never be taken completely for granted, and Paul Martin will no-doubt be carefully scanning the St. Maurice numbers as they come in ... in spite of which, I'd be very surprised if Chretien isn't returned.
03/11/00 j Email:
'The Little Guy' will probably hold-on, but it by no means a shoe-in. BQ & Duceppe have gotten off to a good start this time, unlike '97 (no hairnet fiasco). BQ support support is trending up again. The BQ is 5% higher than the Liberals in the province (in 1997, the BQ and Libs finished with about 37% each in the popular vote). The BQ with 5% edge would probably be able to pick-up 50 out of 75 seats - maybe even St. Maurice.
24/11/00 Email:
Chretien's represented this riding on and off since 1963, and unfortunately he'll win here again, especially considering all the taxpayer money he's funnelled into the riding through corrupt ways.

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Last Updated 25 Novemberr 2000

© 2000 Milton Chan
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