Canadian Federal Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Diane St. Jacques
Bloc Québécois:
Michel Benoît
Canadian Alliance:
Jean-Jacques Treyvaud
Progressive Conservative Party:
Audrey Castonguay
New Democratic Party:
Elizabeth Morey
Marijuana Party:
Nicolas Cousineau

Diane St-Jacques

Previous Result:

Surrounding Ridings:

Avg Household Income
Language (Home)
Submitted Information
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17/10/00 A.S. Email:
The most bass-ackward riding in all of Quebec; thanks to Liberal-turned-Bloqer-turned-talk show host Jean Lapierre, it was the only non-Montreal, non-Hull riding to resist the Mulroney-era PCs--but the neighbouring coattails of Jean Charest led to St-Jacques becoming one of the handful of elected Quebec PCs in '97! (As we know, she switched parties.) And if that isn't enough, if the Mayor of Granby runs, this could become the very definition of a top Alliance prospect in Quebec...
19/10/00 J Smith Email:
Even with the boost provided by Charest in 1997, this riding only went PC by a couple hundred votes. The Bloc have made winning this seat a priority since 1997, and will likely carry the day. The possibility of some backlash against St. Jacques is also a possibility. Look for a close race, but the Bloc winning by a narrow margin.
25/10/00 Brad Nicpon Email:
I marked this PC, but only because it was won by the PCs in '97 who managed to beat the Bloc by only 1%. The liberals were about 10% back from the PC and BQ. This time around we should be looking at a BQ/PC possibility, not a Liberal/BQ...
31/10/00 Adam Daifallah
Lacklustre opportunist former Tory MP Diane St. Jacques is going to be creamed in this riding by the Bloc. The citizens of Shefford will see through her pathetic attempt to save her own electoral hide by jumping to the Liberals (she should be in the NDP, given her personal views.)
01/11/00 John Taylor Email:
The citizen hate st-Jacque for going to the liberal.The PC's candidate is very strong.the riding will remain PC's
03/11/00 Blake Robert
Diane St. Jacques is a bag... period. She's proven herself to be not only useless as an MP... but a Queen of opportunism. The citizens of Shefford will surely send a message to the LIbEralS.
06/11/00 RL Email:
Diane St-Jacques is likely shaking in her boots... the PC candidate is young, vibrant, and knows the issues very well. Diane's move to the Liberals will not settle well with her constituents, and Audrey Castonguay will fly the PC banner again Nov 27th.
06/11/00 M.F. Email:
In the past decade, this riding, which used to be considered as a stronghold for the PQ, has caused many deceptions for the Sovereignists (both PQ and Bloc), even is it voted for independence in 1995. The PQ lost Shefford to the Liberals in a by-election in 1994, which was the only by-election lost by the PQ during the 34th Legislature of the National Assembly (1989-1994). Since then, PQ and BQ have lost every single election held in this riding by a small margin (521 votes behind the PC in 1997, 73 votes behind the PLQ in 1998). I think the "curse" will be working once again against the Bloc, and that the Liberals will win this seat by a small margin.
22/11/00 La Tribune Claude Plante
Le coup de sonde mené auprès de 400 électeurs montre que la formation représentée par Michel Benoit devance de deux points celle de la libérale Diane Saint-Jacques. Si des élections avaient eu lieu il y a quelques jours, le Bloc aurait récolté 45 pour cent des voix, 43 pour cent pour le camp libéral et seulement 5 pour cent pour l'Alliance.
22/11/00 WJM Email:
A CROP poll has the Bloc and Diane St-Jacques running coude-à-coude in the riding, with the BQ having a statistically insignificant lead. Factor in the 2-3 percent "ballot box bonus" that the federalist side almost always gets in Quebec, and this will be a squeaker win for St-Jacques under her new party colours.
22/11/00 Ghislain Boudreau Email:
People in Shefford seem to genuinely dislike having a government MP/MNA for their riding. In the Trudeau era, people in Shefford voted Social Credit; in the Mulroney era, they voted Liberal. Shefford had an opposition MP at the federal level for 27 out the last 32 years; at the provincial level, it has been the case for 22 of the last 30 years. These kinds of statistics would normally encourage a prediction for the Bloc. However, there are some catches : Diane St-Jacques is liked in her riding, and people in the riding have historically shown interest for new right-wing parties. The ADQ (Action démocartique du Québec) had 25 % in the last provincial election, their second highest tally in the province; the riding often voted Social Credit in the 60's/70's. All of this suggests that the Canadian Alliance is likely to get lots of votes in Shefford. The Canadian Alliance is certainly not able to win a Quebec riding at this time, but it can certainly be a spoiler... the question is to know who will be benefit from this. In these circumstances, the only prediction I can make is that there will be a recount after the election, probably (but not certainly) involving the Bloc and the Liberals.

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Last Updated 26 November 2000

© 2000 Milton Chan
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