Canadian Federal Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
Verdun-Saint Henri-Saint Paul-Pointe Saint Charles

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Raymond Lavigne
Bloc Québécois:
Pedro Utillano
Canadian Alliance:
Jacque Gendron
Progressive Conservative Party:
Bernard Cote
New Democratic Party:
Matt McLauchlin
Green Party:
Lorraine Ann Craig
William Lorenson
Marijuana Party:
Marc-Andre Roy
Communist Party:
Bill Sloan

Raymond Lavigne

Previous Result:

Surrounding Ridings:

Avg Household Income
Language (Home)
Submitted Information
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26/10/00 TCS EMAIL:
This is an interesting riding which in some ways is a microcosm of the Island of Montreal. It is largely working class, mixed francophone/immigrant, but with a very affluent part of the Montreal--Nun's Island--tacked on. In the past this has been something of a swing seat: Liberal since 1940, it went PC in 1958, then went Liberal in 1962 and stayed that way until 1984 when it went PC. In 1993 the Liberals held it narrowly against the Bloc. However, since then the Liberals have been consolidating the seat. Working class Bloc supporters are leaving for the suburbs, and allophone Liberal-friendly immigrants are replacing them. Nun's Island is getting bigger, which is good for the Liberals and possibly the PCs but bad for the Bloc which does not usually get the Volvo vote. The riding voted 57 per cent No in 1995, and in 1997 the Liberals extended their lead to 14 per cent. The riding is represented at the provincial level by a left-leaning Liberal. All of this means that the Liberals will win by a solid margin, with the Bloc holding their own but not picking up many disaffected Tories.
30/10/00 A.S.
A mild-mannered, patchy, yet assuredly Liberal puzzle piece, and it comes with an added bonus--it's the immediate neighbour of Paul Martin, who with each election is increasingly the best BQ (and Alliance) repellent there is.

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Last Updated 1 November 2000

© 2000 Milton Chan
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