|I think the NDP have a good shot at Blackstrap due to the fact that the candidate is a good rural candidate (Rare for the NDP in Sask) If they can carry the urban polls they will win. This will be a very close race though.
Some information on the Blackstrap riding from 1997:
With the colapse of the Liberal vote (Both federaly and provincialy) this riding will have a lot of votes up for grabs. This is my riding and I will be working on the campaign here so I will keep updating.
|This will an interesting riding. The CA incumbent is not seeking re-election. The NDP has nominated Noreen Johns who has made quite a name for herself within the farmer community it will be interesting to see if that translates into votes The part of Saskatoon this riding has is not the best NDP territory as such Johns will be at a disadvantaged. The mayor of Saskatoon is rumored to be running here for the Liberals if he does it would be likely that the seat would remain CA because of the anti CA vote is split, if he doesn't throw his hat into the ring it will be a good CA/NDP fight.
|Amidst the Stock-craze out West I seriously doubt that the CA will be losing ground in Saskatchewan. In '97 they won with about 9% of the vote over the nearest Liberal (not NDP.. though they were close) and while it's not a huge margin of victory consider what possible factors would cause people in Saskatchewan to run from the Alliance to the NDP?? If anything the CA would be gaining strength here.
|I doubt the Alliance will lose seats in Saskatchewan. Forget the individual candidates for a minute: Remember the phenomenon of voting different parties federally and provincially and the N.D.P.'s lack of media exposure. (MacDonough should dress up as a ghost this halloween). I have never even been there, but I privately predicted the 1993 results for this province to the exact numbers, then I was able to do so again in 1997 so I think I know what I'm doing. 1 Liberal, 9 Alliance (including this seat), and 4 N.D.P. (No, Pundit, I don't think 14 conservatives will win here.)
|Fed voting patterns in Sask were as thick as Blackstrap molasses in the '90s; Kerpan was elected on a less than 1/3 mandate in '93, and little better in '97. This should remain a Grit/NDP target--anything w/parts of Regina or Saskatoon automatically is--but the "unexpected" rise of the Saskatchewan Party means that the fortunes of the provincial political right are higher (and those of the NDP lower) than they've been for a decade and a half. And if Saskatoon's mayor runs, watch for all the "Day Vs. Dayday" zingers...
|With the Tory vote at a mind-numbing 1% (less than the margin of error), the Alliance should have a comfortable victory here.
|THis seat will definately be going back to the CA. The Ipsos-Reid poll puts CA support at 41% in the combined Man./Sask. polling area. CA support has always been stronger in Sask, meaning that Reid probably has the CA polling at over 50% (maybe as high as 55%) in Saskatchewan. At these levels of support, the CA could win as many as 12 of 14 seats in the cradle of Canadian socialism.
|should be competitive- but with CA seeming to doing well in SASK especially in rural parts NDP should be competition but likely hold for CA since will LIBs vote NDP
|Having been involved in Johns' campaign I am relucantly calling this seat for the Allicance. There will be enough people who vote Liberal to split hte anti-CA vote and allow them to come up through the middle. They will win, but with a slim pluraity