|For the time being I am going to pick Jim Pakiw to retain this seat. However, he has gotten a lot of unfrendly press lately, and a large part of the riding overlaps with some of the stongest provincial NDP seats. If the NDP get a really good candidate, they could take it but this one will be a challenge for them.
|Just some info on the Humboldt riding. The vote % in the 1997 election were: Reform:33.1%, NDP:32.4%, Liberal: 26.4%. If the liberal vote colapses (and it probably will) then this seat could be wide open
|I don't think the incumbent Jim Pankiw will retain this seat, and even if he does it is sad. The results of 1997 were very close between The Reform and the NDP while the Liberal vote was also significantly strong in this riding. People are going to be less inclined to vote Liberal in this seat, because it will seem like a wasted vote, considering there support in Saskatchewan is faultering. Also, Jim Pankiw has become infamous for his harsh words against multiculturalism, and employment equity. All signs point to the NDP capatalizing on the Liberal vote, and the disfavour of Pankiw to win this seat.
|Reform/CA's Saskatchewan weak link and an eternal Frank fave for his funny medical credentials'n'stuff, Pankiw's definitely on shaky ground. NDP had this earmarked as a gain from the Libs, but Ref sneaked up the middle. The close-call NDP contender BTW was Dennis Gruending, subsequently Chris Axworthy's successor in S-R-B. Though reflected Saskatchewan Party glory might pump things up for Pankiw and the Alliance in general, expect this to remain in play.
|Jim Pankiw will take this riding again for the Canadian Alliance. I've been following the news as closely as I can and I heard that CA support is up in BC and Saskatchewan. I realise that this area is very favourable to the NDP but I think CA support will hold without a high profile candidate for the NDP like they had last time. And.... let's be honest, the NDP will not be gaining any seats in this election.
|Listen...the NDP lost this seat in 1997 by LESS than 1%!!. Pankiw hurt himself a number of times with stupid comments and press. Armand Roy of the NDP is going to win this seat. You heard it here first.
|An added, unknown factor in the riding--the Liberal candidate: ex-MP Morris Bodnar.
|My parents live in the rural portion of the riding. They tell me that many seniors who live in smaller rural communities, and small farmers are leaning NDP. Armond Roy, the NDP candidate, was a Provincial MLA for a large section of this riding, and is well known in these areas. The NDP will do as well as last time in the urban section of the riding, while picking up votes in the rural areas Roy represented in the Saskatchewan Legislature. Pick up for the NDP.
|The Alliance will hold this seat and a crucial factor is that there was no CAP candidate last time to split NDP, that 2-3% gives Jim the cushion he needs.