British Columbia Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:
Liberal Party
BRUCE, Graham P.
Green Party
New Democratic Party
Marijuana Party
KUNZ, Larry
Jan Pullinger

Previous Result (redistribution):
Previous Result (old ridings):
Census 1996:
Dev. from Quota:7.41%
Area (km2):1696
Pop Density:29.86

Surrounding Ridings:
Malahat-Juan de Fuca

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19/02/01 CM Email:
With Jan not running again, the NDP wont hold this riding. Liberal pick-up.
07/03/01 Just a Hunch Email:
I think Bruce will take it, but not as big as they think. Bruce is remembered as a Socred, and a turn coat. This constituency is very much labour minded. More so than most, but I think appathy will kill the new NDP candidates chances. Low turnout will deliver the seat to Bruce.
26/03/01 Poll Junkie Email:
This is one riding that could become competitive if the NDP moves up in the provincial polls to the 25-30% range. Jan Pullinger held the seat for 12 years through a by-election and 2 general elections. The NDP candidate is the mayor of Ladysmith so he should have a solid base in the community. I still predict a Liberal win but it won't be a cakewalk by any means.
10/04/01 DMB
Like Comox this riding will return a former Socred in Graham Bruce to Victoria and I agree with poll junkie that if the NDP picks up a few % points it might get closer. A strong well known Green candidate could pose problems for the NDP as the riding has a large number of back to the earth types. Liberal gain
14/04/01 Julian West
I think you might be underestimating the NDP here. I actually think the Liberals have the edge, but I'm "predicting" the NDP so that you might move it back into the toss-ups column. Other submissions have already identified the reasons -- the NDP candidate is solid at the Ladysmith end of the riding; it is a very blue-collar riding which might vote "Liberal" but will have a harder time voting "Socred".
21/04/01 Leon Portelance
I think Graham Bruce will take the riding. Jan Pullinger alienated too many of the old time hard core NDP supporters during her tenure. Anyone who wasn't a "Yes" person wasn't welcome in Jan's inner circle. The NDP membership in the riding is a fraction of what it used to be. Personally I think Graham Bruce is an opportunist who will run for any party as long as it gets him elected (He needs a second term to get his pension). I like Ron Hutchins as a person, but I don't think he has much of a chance, and I couldn't vote NDP this time no matter who was running. I moved to California so I won't be voting, but if I was, I would probably have to spoil my ballot. I think a lot of former NDP supporters feel the same way.
21/04/01 R Smits
I predict Rob Hutchins of the NDP will win the seat. He is a popular mayor in Ladysmith, where he has been elected three times. He has an excellent record as mayor, especially with regard to revitalizing the downtown, and bringing new, clean, industry to town. He has also served as the Chair of the Cowichan Valley Regional District, is a local teacher, and has been out in front in the campaign to keep the Youbou mill open, while Graham Bruce has been keeping his head down. Bruce actually got booed at a public meeting on Youbou a couple of weeks ago. I predict a narrow win for Hutchins.
21/04/01 TT Email:
Rob will win. He is a new face in Provincial politics but he has been active locally- as Mayor of Ladysmith- for some years. Graham is a has been socred running under a Liberal banner. He is not a Liberal. Few of those running are! Haven't heard much about him in the past 8-9 years. What has he been doing? What are his qualifications really? Check out Rob's stand on education, environment.
21/04/01 MB Email:
I believe in this riding Rob Hutchens has the edge over a has been socred. He has an excellent base in the community,& an understanding of the issues in our area.
22/04/01 JN Email:
I believe that Rob Hutchins will win this riding , based on his record as Mayor of Ladysmith and excellent standing in the community. His strong beliefs and commitments to healthcare, education , environment and the local economy stand him in good stead. His approach is balanced, open and honest.
23/04/01 RCG Email:
I think Rob Hutchins has the support of many people who are not normally NDP, because of his work as a mayor, especially environmental issues. Many people I'va talked to will not vote Liberal, no matter what. The Liberals may by in for a big surprise as the campaign progresses.
26/04/01 Mark R.
With the NDP garnering less than 50% in 1996, it would be a bit of stretch to suggest that they will retain this seat. I mean look, the NDP candidate has the advantage of being Mayor of Ladysmith, right? Well, that has absolutely no bearing in Duncan, Lake Cowichan, Youbou, and other communities. There is a healthy rural population here, and this in addition to other factors taken into consideration don't help the NDP. The drop in NDP support, and the relatively high margin of former Reform BC voters going to the BC Liberals enter into this equation. Consequently this riding will go BC Liberal.
29/04/01 SM Email:
I predict that Rob Hutchins will be elected in the riding on the basis of his strong community commitment. He has served succesfully 3 terms as Mayor of Ladysmith. He has re-focused energies to make the Town of ladysmith admired and a desireable communtity to raise a family or spend your retirement years. He has shown sound fiscal responsibilty, good judgment and fairness in goverance. Mr. Hutchins has a sincere approach and is very aware of issues in the riding and will I am sure bring the same good common sence, fairness and a willingness to listen to the constituents that have brought him three terms as a municipal politician.
02/05/01 Mark R.
I wish that people who are predicting NDP wins in this riding offer factual, politically scientific, raw data to back up their beliefs that the NDP will win in this riding. I travel through this riding every day, andwhen I stop for a quick coffee in Duncan or Ladysmith, I don't here people espousing how great the NDP is or the fact that they are voting NDP. What I DO IN FACT hear in Ladysmith is this: "Rob Hutchins is a great guy, but he's with the wrong party". Sorry, he ain't gonna win (reasons for which I've already mentioned).
11/05/01 Dave Email:
I talked to my parents in Duncan last night. Word on the street is that with the NDP probably not forming government, residents of Ladysmith are considering whether or not it makes sense to lose their popular mayor to the opposition backbench.
13/05/01 MS Email:
I went to most of the all-candidates meetings - and survived! Both Rob Hutchins and Loren Duncan were good at putting people to sleep by reading their speeches. Now I know why nothing gets done at the C.V.R.D.! Graham Bruce was the only polished speaker, though Larry Kunz, who joined the event late, provided a lot of comic relief. It's a pity that the marijuana/hemp stand has not been treated more seriously. I think the NDP have lost votes, quite apart from this past dismal decade, because their election signs show a lack of pride in "NDP" and because of their negative advertising.

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Last Updated 14 May 2001
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