British Columbia Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:
BRUNIE, Brunie
Green Party
Liberal Party
New Democratic Party
KROG, Leonard
Marijuana Party
LAVALLE…, Donald Edgar
Unity Party
Dale Lovick
Jan Pullinger
Judith Reid

Previous Result (redistribution):
Previous Result (old ridings):
Census 1996:
Dev. from Quota:9.13%
Area (km2):1320
Pop Density:38.98

Surrounding Ridings:

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17/02/01 P. Kelly Email:
This one will be among the few that will be safe NDP seats. The NDP has a long history here, and the candidate, Len Krog, is popular and well known.
19/02/01 Michael J. Cooper Email:
Despite the fact that Nanaimo has had a long tradition of electing CCF/NDP MLAs, the Party will have a difficult time holding this seat in the upcoming election. Firstly, the NDP candidate Len Krog is not particularly well known in Nanaimo. He is known in the surrounding area having been the MLA for Parksville-Qualicum until 1996 when he was defeated by Paul Reismen. When Reismen resigned in 1999, a Krog ran for the NDP in the by-election only to be cremed, taking half as many votes as the Liberal candidate. Also, the Nanaimo Bingogate scandal has tarnished a number of local New Democrats including the out-going MLA Dale Lovick. Watch for the Liberals to steal this seat from the NDP for the first time in several decades.
19/02/01 CM Email:
It will be close. There is apathy toward the NDP in Nanaimo, considering the Stupich/Bingogate scandal being centred around this riding. Krog might be able to pull it out, however, based on his own popularity, not the party's.
24/02/01 Nick Loenen Email:
With the near collapse of Reform BC and the disappearance of the PDA, plus the bingo-gate scandal the BC Liberals are in a very good position to take this riding.
26/02/01 P. Kelly Email:
The bingogate scandal affected the norhern riding of Nanaimo (Parksville-Qualicum) not the main Nanaimo riding. This riding IS a safer seat for the NDP and Len Krog will be its MLA
06/03/01 love elections
If bingogate was going to be a factor it would have been in previous elections, Krog is well known, has a pretty good profile, and is popular, it will still be a fight but my pick is for him to win.
08/03/01 P. Kelly Email:
Even in the Scored sweeps of 1975, and 1986, Nanaimo held out for the NDP. When Nanaimo voted Reform federally, they still voted NDP provincially. Len Krog will be Nanaimo's next MLA, in a vastly reduced NDP opposition caucus.
14/03/01 Tiny Tim Email:
I am glad that you haven't ticked this riding off for the NDP yet. The Liberal support is some of the highest I have ever seen in this area, and very active. Although it is not a write off for anyone, I have a hard time believing that the majority of people in Nanaimo will take the time to go out to the polls on E-day just to tick off the NDP box on the ballot.
18/03/01 DMB Email:
What effect will be headlines in the paper about a land claim settlement in the region have on the NDP's chances - the NDP mayor of Nanaimo is stating that he hasn't and the community haven't been involved in the process. Isn't this exactly one of the biggest reasons that Gordon Campbell has focused on native land claims as an issue in the election. Also if the NDP candidate is such a great guy how come he is a two time loser but having said that this is the riding that is home to bingogate and many of the locals don't seem to think anyone should take the blame other than Dave Stupich which is why I haven't put this one in anybodies win column yet.
20/03/01 CM Email:
Note to DMB..Nanaimo Mayor Gary Korpan isn't NDP..In fact he ran for the Liberals in 1996. Just to clarify.
22/03/01 kyle
The NDP history in this riding is too long for it to be anything other than NDP
22/03/01 DMB
Oops! I knew I recognized the mayor's name from somewhere. Now you know why my email address is politics 101 and not Politics 401. The fact remains that this treaty issue is hitting home to many NDP'ers - when they see the problems that treaty negotiations can cause in their urban community and not some rural out post 1000km north of Vancouver they may start to see why the Liberals want to rework the treaty process.
26/03/01 Email:
Despite the NDP's foibles, SOUTH Nanaimo, as this riding should be known, is a welfare and native haven. Hence, this probably will be a seat that loves the loser (NDP). Personally, I moved from this seat to Nan-PQ, so looks like we'll be in a WIN seat after the NDP is DECIMATED
16/04/01 Mark R.
Judging from what I'm hearing on the streets, people who are voting are voting Liberal. Sure there are still die-hard NDP'rs out there and the NDP candidate will do well. Unfortunately for his political future however, many who WOULD vote NDP are just not enthusiastic enough for their party to get out to vote. Besides, the BC Liberal candidate is hustling hard and proving himself to the community.
25/04/01 psw
I think the race in Nanaimo will be close. Leonard Krog is a seasoned veteran at this. He has experience losing and winning in provincial elections. It is true he has lost two elections in a row, but don't forget he lost the 1996 election by just a handful of votes. In the end I think the Liberals will win this riding. It would be a lot closer if just Mike Hunter and Leonard Krog were running, but this time the left wing vote will be split. I constantly here people saying they will vote Green or the Marijuana Party, and I bet those people are traditional NDP voters.
27/04/01 ES
This riding changing fast, with resorce sector out rotting, and looking at other industries such as tourism and retirement homes. People are starting to look for another party rather than the NDP even at this riding. I think the NDP are out of luck, with vote spliting with green, and reform a non factor issue, the libreal could win.
02/05/01 Peter Email:
Len Krog will be Nanaimo's next MLA. People do not like Campbell, and as a former MLA, and local guy, his personal credibility is enough itself. People have expressed concerns about 79 Gordon Campbells/Liberal sheep in Victoria. [partisan text edited]
02/05/01 Michael Ensley
A large NDP campaign rally was held with standing room only in the riding indicating that Ujjal D's debate performance will now allow the BCNDP to reclaim some of their old seats in order to provide effective opposition to the Campbell Liberals.
03/05/01 Mark R.
What Michael is forgeting (perhaps on purpose), is that the majority of people in attendance (250 est. by Nanaimo Daily News) were from outside Nanaimo. People came from Duncan, Parksville, Qualicum, Port Alberni, Comox, Courtenay, Ladysmith, Victoria, Tofino, Ucluelet, and Campbell River. Having a huge crowd means nothing, especially if it's not all indigineous to the area.
04/05/01 Bernard Schulmann
History is meaningless in this election. No matter how long areas have elected NDP/CCF MLAs, that is no predication of the future. Remember all the safe Socred seats? Most of them are now BC Liberal - a significantly different political party. 1) Federally the NDP is no longer a factor in what was once the safest NDP/CCF turf federally. 2) The NDP are not running an incumbent 3) The Greens are doing a wonderful job for the Liberals splitting the vote. Every vote for Greens will seal the fate of Lenoard Krog 4) The BC Liberals do not have the social conservative element the Socreds did, they are much more centrist. Can anyone name a gay Socred MLA or even member of the party at any time? 5) Lenoard Krog has been defeated in elections he should have won - he lost in 1996 to Paul Reitsma and then to Judith Reid. Now for personally opinion, it is a shame that he will not be an MLA - he is better than most of the current NDP crop. It is also bizzare the Greens are running against him, I would argue is greener than the majority of the BC Green members. In the past the BC Greens deliberately did not run candidates against green New Democrats. On the other hand, I hear good things about the about to be elected MLA Hunter. So when the riding goes Liberal, the people of Nanaimo will be well represented.
05/05/01 DMB
Time for a decision from this soul - Liberal gain. With the poll numbers being what they are just can't see how the NDP will retain this seat - don't think the Dale Lovick/JanPullinger combo are all that well liked and Krog has lost his last two times. To Peter - people may not like Campbell but they hate the NDP and will vote to get rid of them. Some would say that one NDP is worst than 79 Gordon Campbells.
13/05/01 P. Kelly Email:
I still belive this will be an NDP hold. I see many Liberal signs on right-of-ways, and highways, and some in business windows, but in the neighborhoods, they are putting up Len Krog signs. In this area, there is a LOT of distrust of Campbell, and they do not generally want to have yet another Liberal MLA. Len Krog is well known, and has the experience too, and people recognise that, and on May 16th, he will become MLA.
15/05/01 michael Ensley
Liberal sweep will take out many former NDP seats

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Last Updated 16 May 2001
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