British Columbia Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
Saanich South

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:
Liberal Party
BRICE, Susan
New Democratic Party
LAUDER, James Robert
Green Party
Conservative Party
Marijuana Party
  Saanich South
Andrew Petter

Previous Result (redistribution):
Previous Result (old ridings):
Saanich South
Census 1996:
Dev. from Quota:1.75%
Area (km2):86
Pop Density:557.79

Surrounding Ridings:
Malahat-Juan de Fuca
Oak Bay-Gordon Head
Saanich North and the Islands

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19/02/01 CM Email:
If Petter were running, there might be a chance for the NDP. Liberal pick-up.
06/04/01 Scott Waters
I don't expect Cubberley will hold this seat for the NDP, but it could be an interesting campaign. He's fairly "green" as New Democrats go, like Petter before him - Cubberley's on Saanich council and an advocate of better cycling routes around Victoria, and an intelligent supporter of other ways of improving sub/urban living and transportation. Brice is a perennial Liberal/Socred candidate. I remember her running in Oak Bay when Elizabeth Cull won a byelection there in the late '80s. She has a good chance of winning but I doubt she'll spark any great enthusiasm during the campaign. If Cubberley can't rally the sizeable environmental vote in this riding, look for the Greens to challenge him for second place.
20/04/01 Scott Waters
Also, Brice doesn't live in the riding. Cubberley and Green candidate Gracie MacDonald do, and they will not let people forget this. MacDonald has a letter in this week's Monday magazine, where she argues for the Greens as an alternative to greenish NDP candidate Cubberley.
20/04/01 S.G.
Dosanjh doesn't live in his own riding! He lives in Vancouver - Quilchena. So any NDPer's arguments about that can be turned around against them.
22/04/01 DS Email:
This will be a close one. Overall, I think Andrew Petter's followers will give David Chubberly the edge needed to win this riding, as long as the Green's campaign doesn't gain too much momentum.
26/04/01 Mark R.
Well, judging by the math alone, this riding will surely go BC Liberal. Take the voters who voted for Reform BC, and 75% of the former PDA supporters, and add that to the fact that Petter isn't running... makes for a no-brainer. Additionally, keep in mind the huge depreciation of NDP support in this province (what 16-18% in recent polls?). Take that into account and I'll be eating crow if the NDP are elected in this riding.
02/05/01 B. MacKenzie
I believe Paul Scrimger (BC Conservative Party), a local Saanich South resident, has a good solid chance as the dark horse in this race. He is highly intelligent, knows the local and provincial issues, and sticks closely to conservative philosophy which the BC liberals are attempting to emulate. Don't be suprised in 2005 to see the BC Conservative Party in opposition or government. Gordon Campbell will have a hard time convincing his free enterprise coalition of mostly conservatives to stay on board after the NDP is dumped. The conservatives in the BC Liberal party know that BC Liberal successes could mean federal Liberal gains.
13/05/01 I Don't want 79 Gordon Campbells Email:
It will be a closer race between Brice and Cubberely, with Cubberely coming out on top in the end. Brice will be 0-3 in elections. God riddance to that old bird. She doesn't even live in Saanich South. She lives in the rich area of Broadmead.
14/05/01 DMB
If a Liberal were to call an NDP female candidate "an old bird" as I don't want to see 79 Gordon Campbell's posted we would be tarred and feather and called right wing anti - women bigots. Must be the stress of probably losing this seat that would cause this person to post such a message.

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Last Updated 15 May 2001
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