British Columbia Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
Victoria-Beacon Hill

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:
Liberal Party
BRAY, Jeff
Communist Party
Unity Party
HARTNELL, Gregory Paul Michael
New Democratic Party
JAMES, Carole
Green Party
Marijuana Party
  Victoria-Beacon Hill
Gretchen Brewin

Previous Result (redistribution):
Previous Result (old ridings):
Victoria-Beacon Hill
Census 1996:
Dev. from Quota:4.95%
Area (km2):13
Pop Density:3806.15

Surrounding Ridings:
Oak Bay-Gordon Head

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19/02/01 CM Email:
Brewin would be popular enough to keep the riding NDP. But she aint runnin. Liberal pick-up.
03/03/01 A. Email:
Gretchen Brewin may not be running again, but this is an NDP stronghold and they're running one of their few true "star" candidates here. Carole James is the former chair of the Victoria school board and is well respected in the community. She's a proven vote-getter and certainly has the name recognition necessary to get elected.
06/03/01 JP Email:
This should be a hold for the NDP. Brewin won over 50% of the vote last time and her replacement, Carole James, is a well known local politican who has a reputation of fighting for local issues. While I expect it to be closer than 1996, James will carry the day over Liberal Jeff Bray.
07/03/01 Just a Hunch Email:
The NDP are over confident about James'chances. They will be sidelined by an independant run at her by Friedland. who blames her group for his loss as mayor. His energy will be high. He will campaign hard and will cost her the seat. this one belongs to the Libs.
20/03/01 KH Email:
This will be a race to watch in the upcpming election, but after all the NDP dirty tricks, this riding wil be a Liberal pick-up. There are a number of reasons for that. The biggest one being the BC Liberal proposal for a Merit Commissioner. The moral in the public service is very low with the NDP, and public servants want to see a sense of pride in the work we do restored. The NDP and George Heyman for the BCGEU can talk all they want about the BC Liberals going on a witch hunt after the election, becasue the people that deserve there jobs are not worried. They will vote BC liberal in big numbers, which means victory for Jeff Bray and Sheila Orr in Victoria.
26/03/01 Bernard Schulmann
The NDP should have been safe here but here are the points why they will lose 1) Federally they were utterly devasted in the same area that they won in the past. Most NDP supporters in Victoria managed to reconcile themselves with voting for the federal Liberals, a party of the centre right and anti democratic, Campbells Liberals would be less a jump for them. 2) The Greens will target this as a winnable riding. In 1999 the previsous people that ran the Greens managed to win seats on Victoria City council. Look the Greens to take 10-15% of the vote here - all from the NDP. 3) The Swing away from the NDP is about 19% points - as large as the gap between the Liberals and NDP in 1996 4) The swing to the Liberals is about 15% points - only slightly less than the gap. 5) The NDP ran a moderately popular incumbent in 1996. This time it is a new MLA in any case. 6) The riding has many civil servants - they voted NDP in 1991 and 1996 but are now opposed to the NDP and getting active as Liberals. 7) Carol James is badly tainted by how she got her current gig. My prediction for the riding is as follows: Jeff Bray - Liberal 55%, Carol James - NDP 30%, Walter Meyer zu Erpen - Green 12%, Others 3%
26/03/01 Poll Junkie Email:
Carole James will hold this riding for the NDP, because she's a high-profile candidate who can win over the federal Liberal voters who voted for David Anderson in 3 straight elections. Anderson was supposed to be in trouble here last fall but actually won the seat pretty handily, if memory serves. The BC Liberal candidate is weak and has no profile in the riding. It's also a solid NDP riding (one of the few left) with lots of BCGEU members, who have just massively ratified a new collective agreement. This will help keep them in the fold on election day for the NDP.
27/03/01 DMB
No opinion at this time but:
1. Green party will factor in the outcome - will hurt the NDP more than the Liberals.
2. The Liberal candidate is also a member of the BCGEU.
3. NDP candidate's political patronage appointment will be a factor.
29/03/01 Highland Flood Email:
An NDP stronghold, a non-incumbent candidate.... I think this will be a close three-way race between NDP, Liberals, and the Greens, but I see a potential for the Green campaign to build up momentum. The NDP will obviously lose a lot of support, but where will it go? To the Liberals? I don't think so. And these are people who care enough to still vote. Disillusioned NDP supporters will have a choice of toeing the party line to prevent a complete wipeout or turning to the Greens. Victoria, for all its conservatism, is a very environmentally conscious town. And this riding has a high population of university students, many of whom stay around in the summer. Walter Meyer zu Erpen just narrowly failed to make it onto Victoria council in 1999. He probably has as much political experience, if not more, than James or Bray. And if Adriane Carr performs well in the leaders' debate, he could benefit from the same kind of wave that saw Liberals capture many previously "safe" Socred seats in 1991, seats that would otherwise have gone to the then-opposition NDP or remained Socred.
27/04/01 Mr. Brown Email:
Carol James will win this one despite her party affiliation. The Liberal --Jeff Bray (who?)-- is a newcomer and a nobody. He ended up looking like a jerk for his allegations that Carol James recieved patronage. Anyone who reads a newspaper or especially with kids in the riding knows James for her principled leadership over the years on the School Board. She's not a Glen Clark NDPer or particularly partisan -- she's moderate-left, middle-class mom who fits the profile of Fairfield, James Bay and Fernwood residents. students Green candidate will get 4-5%, enough to scare, but not defeat the NDP.
29/04/01 Trendwatcher Email:
I wouldn't put too much stock in the aura of Carole James. First of all, as a school board trustee she presided over some significant cuts, thanks to, you guessed it, the NDP government. Second, the Greens did better in Beacon Hill than any other South Island seat last election so it stands to reason that they will make strong gains there. As well, the local NDP are not a harmonious group. The Orcherton-Sihota people are not exactly kissy kissy with the James-Brewin-Ujjal types. Grassroots NDPers like Bob Friedland won't support James - and they need every vote they can get. It reminds me of the 1991 election when the Socreds ran a host of very decent candidates in Victoria - Suzanne Hansen in Beacon Hill in fact. Despite the strong slate, they were badly defeated. Jeff Bray may be a political newcomer but that also translates to "no baggage". He's getting good press and his background in the civil service will neutralize the usual NDP scare tactics.
02/05/01 Michael Ensley
With a strong local candidate in James and the performance of the Premier in the debates this riding will vote NDP to provide effective opposition in Victoria.
04/05/01 Bernard Schulmann
Why the BC Liberals will win this riding 1) Federally the Liberals have won this riding regularly 2) This was a provincial Liberal stronghold for MANY years until the very hard work from Charles Barber to wrest into the NDP camp. The riding will return to it's roots and happily go Liberal 3) The Greens and NDP federally were not major players in the riding - inthe dry run for both parties, neither one managed to get the vote out. 4) There was a significant CA vote here - look to those people to hold their nose and vote Liberal. 5) In 1999 the Greens and the NDP worked together to win a few seats on city council, but a minority of the vote. The BC Liberal types won the majority civicaly when the Greens and NDP worked together, imagine now when they are split. On election day there will be a Liberal landslide here. Look to this riding to stay Liberal for decades.
06/04/01 Poll Junkie Email:
Recent drives through the riding reveal that Carol James is winning the sign war easily, especially with household signs as opposed to vacant lots and empty buildings, which tend to be "voting" for the Liberal candidate. The Greens will take some votes, but Carol's personal popularity and the NDP core vote will carry her over the top on election night.
08/05/01 Dave 2
A little reality check here, Victoria most certainly was *not* a "provincial Liberal stronghold for MANY years" before Charles Barber. Yes, David Anderson took the 2nd seat in '72, but prior to that, it was solid Socred. You have to go back to 1956 to find Liberal George Gregory taking the 3rd seat. Nevertheless, Liberal == New Socred. Bray in a squeaker.
10/05/01 M.A. Price
Everyone knows that the NDP are going to be whipped, possibly wiped out next Wednesday. However, I am going to predict that Victoria-Beacon Hill will be one of only 2-4 ridings that will go NDP. Carole James will win this one in a squeaker. Of course, the Green Party will siphon off some NDP votes, but James is as close to a star candidate as the NDP has and, by winning, will position herself as a possible future leader of the party. Jeff Bray is a personable, nice fellow, but his inexperience will not help him against James. I believe that Dosanjh's call for some opposition to the Liberals might garner the NDP 2-4 seats. My walkabouts in the riding indicate that Carole James is now winning the sign war.
13/05/01 CR Email:
Before we draw conclusions based on the "sign war", I would like you to remember what happenned in Quebec City a few weeks ago. We saw several thousand, mainly left wing, "anti-free trade" protesters, but very few (if any) pro- free- trade, center- and right-wing counter-demonstrators. Yet 65 percent of the people who voted in the recent Canadian election voted either Liberal or Alliance (77 percent if you count PC votes, a total of 9967757, nine times the NDP votes!). The centre-right population in Canada seems to generally be quieter, but yes they do vote! Too close to call though, the NDP has a high profile candidate.
13/05/01 DMB
Sooner or later I knew I would have to answer my earlier post and pick a winner and because I don't know a lot about this riding I will go with a hunch and pick the NDP in this one. The latest Compas BCTV Vancouver Sun poll numbers for the Capitol region are as follows: Liberal 49% NDP 26% Green Party 16% with a + - margin of 7% - while this totals seem a little out of whack with other polls and was only based on a sample size of 200 some voters I still think the little momentum that is coming to the NDP in the final days will probably be enough to hold onto this riding. If however the green vote is at the high end of the margin over 20% then the Liberals will probably win - in either case it will probably be a 1000 vote or less margin. NDP hold.
15/05/01 DBG Email:
Like others, I live in the riding, and on the surface it seems to me to be a NDP stronghold. However, there are a lot less lawn signs than there were in 1996(For both parties), and this is a much more contentious election. My suspicion is that there are embarrassed NDPers out there who are actually going to vote Green without telling their neighbours. Some of my more leftist friends have already stated such opinions. In any election, there will be those who vote for the party no matter what the track record is. However, it is the swing vote that will win this one. Carole James is pretty well respected, but has the albatross of the NDP about her. Bray's problem is that he is young and untested. However, Campbell's Liberals seem to have parlayed that characteristic into a winning forumla.

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Last Updated 16 May 2001
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