Election Prediction Project
British General Election
Oxford East

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Labour Party:
Rt. Hon. Andrew D. Smith
Conservative Party:
Cheryl Potter
Liberal Democratic Party:
Stephen Goddard
Green Party:
Pritam Singh
UK Independence Party:
Peter P. Gardner
Socialist Alliance:
John Lister

Rt Hon Andrew Smith

97 Result:
Andrew Smith
Jonathan Djanogly
George Kershaw
Total Vote Count / Turnout

92 Result: (Redistributed)
Total Vote Count / Turnout

Demographic Profile:
< 1619.6%
65 <18.6%

Ethnic Origin:
Other non-white2.2%

Full Time63.7%
Part Time16.4%
Self Employed9.1%
Government Schemes0.9%

Household SEG:
I - Professional9.7%
II - Managerial/Technical28.0%
III - Skilled (non-manual)11.9%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)24.3%
IV - Partly Skilled15.7%
V - Unskilled8.6%

Own Residence56.7%
Rent Residence41.6%
Own Car(s)62.6%
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21/04/01 NG Email:
Believe it or not, Oxford East was, in the recent past, a Tory seat. Since those days, things have gone a little sour for the Tories in Oxford. There is only one Tory on the city council and in the local elections in 2000, Labour would have narrowly held the seat against the Lib Dems with the Tories and Greens in third and fourth place. Although local elections do not necessarily determine general elections, it will be interesting to see whether this trend away from the Tories will be replicated at the General Election this time round. The Lib Dems are gaining in strength here in East Oxford and can count on a reasonable amount of votes from the Greens, so it will be interesting to see whether they can grab second place here in 2001.
29/04/01 PS Email:
Nominally a safe Labour seat, this has seen an impressive Lib Dem performance in local elections recently. Admittedly this doesn't always add up to General election success, but at an early stage in the county council election campaign (with the general expected on the same day), it looks good for the Lib Dems. They are the only party visible in terms of posters in the constituency, are plastering the place (or at least my house) with leaflets, and are helped by an invisible Tory party. Expect at least a strong Lib Dem second place.
02/05/01 NMF Email:
Although safe on paper Labour have watched their support collapse in round after round of local elections. Combined with an appalling turnout in what used to be safe Labour wards they must be very worried. The Lib Dems have been building up their local base steadily since the last election. At that time they had not one single councillor in the seat, they now have twelve in five different wards. Andrew Smith MP has let down Oxford and should be a worried man right now.
08/05/01 PSR Email:
I am amazed at the suggestion that the Lib Dems could take this seat. Admittedly, I don't know Oxford East as well as contributors who live there but if the Chief Secretary to the Treasury loses a near 17,000 majority on election night, then it will be a bigger political earthquake than Portillo losing in Enfield (and require a bigger swing).
11/05/01 LB Email:
A goodish second place is the best the Liberal Democrats can expect in Oxford East; it is all they managed in the actual votes in the May 2000 local elections in which Labour lost control of Oxford. Labour had 35%, Lib Dem 25%, Conservatives 19% and Greens 19% in this seat. Labour can't do worse than that.
19/05/01 BG Email:
The Lib Dem Steve Goddard could just turn recent local government success into a parliamentary victory. This dos'nt always happen to the Lib Dems, but there are some reasons in this case: 1) The Green vote at local elections here is very large; 19% constituency-wide. This is a pretty sophisticated electorate; they know that the Greens have no chance nationally, and see the Lib Dems as the next best thing; pretty green and anti-Labour (the Greens council seats have been won from Labour). Many will vote for Goddard. The Greens seem to have admitted this by putting up an little-known candidate, rather than one of their higher-profile councillors. 2) At least two former Labour councillors are publically backing Goddard. 'Old' Labour voters are especially hostile towards incumbent Andrew Smith because as a Treasury minister he's very identified with New Labour. Lib Dems policies like raising income tax go down well with this group. 3) The Conservatives seem pretty disorganised. They have only one councillor in the constiuency. Lib Dem local council victories in the last few years have been helped by Tories voting tactically against the former Labour city council; another unusual trend that could be repeated at the parliamentary election.
24/05/01 Alex Macfie Email:alex@flagboy.demon.co.uk
The LibDems are strong in local government, the Tories (who held the seat until 1987 with Steve Norris) nowhere. The LibDems should be able to carry some of this strength to the Westminster election, and can expect a strong second place. But it will be a Labour hold, this time round at least.
30/05/01 Colin Forth Email:
To say that Greens would vote Lib Dem is fallacious. I live in this constituency and have spoken to Labour canvassers. They have a special mark for those who are Green for the council election and Labour for the General Election. It is a very common occurence. Part of the Lib Dem strength at local level has been to appeal to Tories that only they can beat Labour. This is not a tenable proposition when the difference in votes is so high.

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Last Updated 31 May 2001
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