Election Prediction Project
British General Election
Bury St Edmunds

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Labour Party:
Mark G. Ereira
Conservative Party:
David L. Ruffley
Liberal Democratic Party:
Richard Williams

David Ruffley

97 Result:
Mark Ereire-Guye
David Ruffley
David Cooper
Total Vote Count / Turnout

92 Result: (Redistributed)
Total Vote Count / Turnout

Demographic Profile:
< 1619.8%
65 <19.2%

Ethnic Origin:
Other non-white0.5%

Full Time64.5%
Part Time17.5%
Self Employed12.1%
Government Schemes0.7%

Household SEG:
I - Professional6.5%
II - Managerial/Technical32.3%
III - Skilled (non-manual)11.8%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)26.5%
IV - Partly Skilled14.5%
V - Unskilled4.8%

Own Residence70.4%
Rent Residence26.2%
Own Car(s)78.3%
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14/05/01 J Smith Email:
This seat should be interesting to watch on election night. Labour and the Conservatives are very close here, which should result in a dogfight. It is almost impossible to predict, at this point, who will come out the winner. I'm leaning to Labour, but this early in the campaign it is too close to call.
16/05/01 Paul R Davis Email:pdavis1@vtown.com.au
This looks a fascinating contest. Labour polled spectacularly well in the six Suffolk Ridings in 1997, outpolling he Conservatives for the first time ever. It is very hard to see them doing so well again. They took Liberal votes fairly consistently as well and in Bury St Edmunds, a very much-changed seat, this was unlikely to have been tactical. Disillusioned Labour first-timers have somewhere else to go other than to the Tories and, with the benefits of incumbency, David Ruffley will surely hold at least his very low percentage from last time. Tories have made modest gains on the relevant local authorities since 1997 but,so they should when in opposition. I think crucially, the Liberals have as well and, even though Labour have re-selected their 1997 candidate, I think the opposition to the Tories will split more evenly this time. The Conservatives also have a 5.3% Referendum party vote to squeeze. Prediction: Conservative hold with moderate comfort.
21/05/01 LB Email:
It depends on whether we take the national polls seriously as to whether Bury St Edmunds is a likely Labour gain. The Conservatives locally are split - Mike Brundle, a leading Conservative figure in Bury, is standing as an Independent Conservative and has strong local roots (the sitting MP was a Treasury adviser in the John Major government). If Labour can squeeze any more tactical votes out of the Lib Dems (or there is a general shift against the Tories) then Mark Ereira (an experienced candidate who came close to success in 1997) could do it.

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Last Updated 7 June 2001
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