Election Prediction Project
British General Election
Castle Point

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Labour Party:
Christine M. Butler
Conservative Party:
Robert M. Spink
Liberal Democratic Party:
Billy Boulton
UK Independence Party:
Ronald Hurrell

Mrs Christine Butler

97 Result:
Christine Butler
Robert Spink
David Baker
Total Vote Count / Turnout

92 Result: (Redistributed)
Total Vote Count / Turnout

Demographic Profile:
< 1620.2%
65 <16.6%

Ethnic Origin:
Other non-white0.5%

Full Time62.3%
Part Time15.0%
Self Employed14.2%
Government Schemes0.9%

Household SEG:
I - Professional4.9%
II - Managerial/Technical31.3%
III - Skilled (non-manual)16.1%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)31.6%
IV - Partly Skilled11.0%
V - Unskilled4.0%

Own Residence89.5%
Rent Residence9.8%
Own Car(s)79.3%
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12/05/01 J Smith Email:
For the Conservatives to win this seat, they would have to take some votes away from the Liberals. Labour would have to lose some support as well. At this point, it would be hard to argue against a Labour win.
15/05/01 Sean Fear Email:fear_sean@hotmail.com
Labour only won by 1,200 in 1997. This is a traditionally Conservative seat and should be regained this time round.
16/05/01 Paul Richard Davis Email:pdavis1@vtown.com.au
This is as good a seat as any to risk a contrary opinion. Before 1997, this was the Conservatives' 77th safest seat. The Labour win that year was in the freakish class, on a 17% swing, in a 90% owner-occupied and almost all-white area. It followed a 1995 performance of winning 35 out of 39 seats on the identical local authority, itself highly freakish. The Conservatives are now back to holding fourteen.
There was definitely some owner-occupier disgust in South-East England in 1997, aimed at their usual Conservative representatives, about negative equity and re-possessions. With house prices steadily rising again in the south-east, and the Conservatives not in power, this will have abated.
The Conservatives have re-selected previous M.P. Robert Spink, an experienced campaigner, who will have learnt from the experience. Labour won't waste resouces on this seat if the going gets rough elsewhere later in the campaign.I think the Conservatives must surely gain this one.
17/05/01 JR Email:
Labour held on to control of Castle Point District Council (the boundaries of which are identical to those of the parliamentary constituency) in 1999, in mid term when they had some very poor results elsewhere. Christine Butler will grind out another victory, possibly by an increased majority.
30/05/01 D Cook Email:
Christine Butler will take this seat easily. The local Conservatives are in a mess, and with a late nomination from Doug Roberts - an independent Conservative the votes will be split, which will give a win well within the reach of Labour. Bob Spink the Tory candidate is unliked in the area - but fails to accept this. After losing by a 16% swing to Labour in 1997, he really should have tried his luck elsewhere - the voters don't like him and the recent Tory infighting will not help his image. Castle Point has 6 candidates for this election which will spread the votes undoubtedly in Labours favour.

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Last Updated 7 June 2001
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