Election Prediction Project
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British General Election
Harwich

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Ivan J. Henderson
Conservative Party:
Iain M. Sproat
Liberal Democratic Party:
Peter Wilcock
UK Independence Party:
Anthony Finegan-Butler

Incumbent:
Ivan Henderson

97 Result:
Ivan Henderson
20,74038.8%
Iain Sproat
19,52436.5%
Ann Elvin
7,03713.1%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
53,51470.62%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
14,04724.7%
29,37251.7%
13,18723.2%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
56,86276.1%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1616.3%
16-249.8%
25-3915.5%
40-6524.6%
65 <33.7%

Ethnic Origin:
White99.3%
Black0.2%
Indian/Pakistani0.2%
Other non-white0.4%

Employment:
Full Time56.5%
Part Time17.1%
Self Employed14.0%
Government Schemes1.2%
Unemployed11.2%

Household SEG:
I - Professional3.5%
II - Managerial/Technical27.7%
III - Skilled (non-manual)15.2%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)28.0%
IV - Partly Skilled16.4%
V - Unskilled6.5%

Misc:
Own Residence83.2%
Rent Residence15.8%
Own Car(s)65.8%
Submissions
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12/05/01 J Smith Email:
Conservatives lost this seat in Labour route last time, but is a traditional Tory seat. Though they are way ahead in the polls, Labour will have a hard time keeping those Conservatives that voted for them out of protest last time. Conservatives pull off a win in Harwich.
13/05/01 Sean Fear Email:fear_sean@hotmail.com
One of the seats where one can say unequivocally that the large vote for the Referendum Party (almost 5,000) cost the Tories the seat. The Tories will recover most of that vote and win this seat.
15/05/01 LB Email:
I don't share the assumption that the very high 1997 Referendum share will go automatically to the Tories. The UKIP is active in Harwich and the 1997 Referendum candidate Jeffrey Titford is now an MEP for that party. The UKIP could frustrate the Tories this time. Ivan Henderson has a fairly good local profile.
23/05/01 A.S. Email:adma@interlog.com
At 9.2%, in fact, this was the best Referendum result of all in '97. And now that Basildon has been, for now, permanently etched Labour, it'll be to Harwich, together with Braintree and Castle Point, where people will look to see whether Labour's freak "Essex Man" gains were one-trick ponies or not. But Labour can still sustain a solid, if more orthodox, majority even if it lost all three--on the other hand, if Iain Sproat's seemingly well-justified Harwich comeback bid tanks, then the Tories'll feel like taking that next ferryboat to Hook of Holland in order to escape the humiliation...

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Last Updated 7 June 2001
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