Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
North Norfolk

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Michael Gates
Conservative Party:
Hon. David G.L. Prior
Liberal Democratic Party:
Norman P. Lamb
Green Party:
Michael Sheridan
UK Independence Party:
Paul Simison

Incumbent:
David Prior

97 Result:
Michael Cunningham
14,73625.1%
David Prior
21,45636.5%
Norman Lamb
20,16334.3%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
58,81376.27%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
13,85023.2%
28,81048.2%
16,36527.4%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
59,75181.0%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1616.8%
16-2410.9%
25-3917.1%
40-6527.7%
65 <27.6%

Ethnic Origin:
White99.5%
Black0.1%
Indian/Pakistani0.1%
Other non-white0.3%

Employment:
Full Time56.4%
Part Time16.9%
Self Employed18.6%
Government Schemes1.0%
Unemployed7.1%

Household SEG:
I - Professional4.4%
II - Managerial/Technical28.0%
III - Skilled (non-manual)11.3%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)27.9%
IV - Partly Skilled18.7%
V - Unskilled4.4%

Misc:
Own Residence69.2%
Rent Residence25.9%
Own Car(s)77.5%
Submissions
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19/04/01 NG Email:
North Norfolk will be a tight contest. The Tories are defending a slimish majority and the Lib Dems under the popular and well-known Norman Lamb will be banking on squeezing Labour votes. But then again, Labour's vote appears pretty resilient and it will require real pressure to convince voters to switch. Whether the Lib Dems can do that this time remains to be seen.
01/05/01 JB Email:
Result down to how many Labour voters will swtich to oust William Hague's right hand man - David Prior. Norman Lamb will pull it off if he gets the tactical votes.
02/05/01 JI Email:
This is one of the very few seats that the Conservatives may lose at the coming election. David Prior's case will not be helped by the fact that as Deputy Chairman of his party he has to spend a disproportionate amount of time at Conservative Central Office in London, whilst his Lib Dem opponent - who is standing here for the third time running - can busy himself in the constituency. Furthermore, Labour's activists here are most likely to be shipped across to neighbouring Norfolk North West where they are defending a slim majority: this will allow the Lib Dems more of an opportunity than elsewhere to tap into their support.
07/05/01 Financial Times ROBERT SHRIMSLEY AND BRIAN GROOM
Hague still upbeat in the face of poll gloom
However, he knows that a number of existing Tory seats are in danger and that the more gloomy extrapolation of the party's data would be gains of only 20-30 seats - a Labour majority of around 120. Tories whose seats are most at risk include David Prior, the deputy chairman and chief executive
15/05/01 Andy Darley Email:mail@andydarley.com
This is a clear Lib Dem gain, despite Labour's resiliance and the Greens putting up a reasonably well-known candidate (the Euro candidate in the year the Greens scored well). Norman is well-known locally, has momentum behind him, and will be aided by the defection of the moderate Tory Paul Howell, ex-MEP and son of the former MP for the seat, to the Lib Dems.

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Last Updated 7 June 2001
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