Election Prediction Project
British General Election
North West Norfolk

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Labour Party:
George Turner
Conservative Party:
Henry C. Bellingham
Liberal Democratic Party:
Ian Mack
UK Independence Party:
Robert Jones

Dr George Turner

97 Result:
George Turner
Henry Bellingham
Evelyn Knowles
Total Vote Count / Turnout

92 Result: (Redistributed)
Total Vote Count / Turnout

Demographic Profile:
< 1618.6%
65 <23.0%

Ethnic Origin:
Other non-white0.4%

Full Time59.6%
Part Time17.1%
Self Employed13.5%
Government Schemes1.4%

Household SEG:
I - Professional4.3%
II - Managerial/Technical28.1%
III - Skilled (non-manual)10.0%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)30.5%
IV - Partly Skilled18.2%
V - Unskilled4.7%

Own Residence69.7%
Rent Residence26.8%
Own Car(s)75.3%
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14/05/01 J Smith Email:
This seat went to the Labour party last time, but had been a traditional Conservative seat prior to that. The Conservative defeat was a one shot deal, and will not repeat this time. The Conservatives will win this seat this time around.
21/05/01 LB Email:
NW Norfolk is NOT a traditionally Tory area. It is based on Kings Lynn, which voted Labour in 1945, 1950, 1964 and 1966 and only turned in a really big Tory lead in 1987 and perhaps 1992. Far from being a 'one shot deal' it is a seat Labour has always won when getting a big national majority and even managed to scrape in when the national result was close in 1950 and 1964 (though not in the 1974 elections). But part of the seat is genuinely rural and it hit the headlines in 2000 with the conviction of a farmer, Tony Martin, for killing a burglar. The Tories made some populist headway on the right to self-defence that may still have resonance here. A close fight.
22/05/01 Full Email:pdavis1@vtown.com.au
This is a very tricky "call" Kings Lynn is a Labour town, but the rural parts of Norfolk included in this seat had lost nearly all their Labour vote, until the surprising gain in 1997. An interesting historical note is that only one Conservative M.P. ever defected to the short-lived Social Democratic Party, and he was the incumbent here. This distorted the major party picture in 1983 and 1987, but by 1992, the two-party battle had re-asserted itself. Labour are much more likely to hold seats won on huge swings in 1997, which are suburban, New Town or in Scotland and Wales. If there is any truth in oft-stated wisdom that rural voters do not like Labour, then this is a seat the Conservatives must win, if they are not to be slaughtered again. There is some evidence that East Anglian voters are unusually kind to their incumbents, but Henry Bellingham will also carry a similar advantage, as MP from 1983 to 1992. Local election results are not a good guide in seats like this, and it is the eleventh most marginal Lab-Con contest. Close, but I believe Henry Bellingham will win. Conservative Gain.
23/05/01 A.S. Email:adma@interlog.com
The "not the 1974 elections" note could be of some significance here; Kings Lynn's curiously intense pocket of Labour support was really more of a postwar freak that ultimately subsided and vanished into the SDP murk. The present incumbency surely carries its reverb from Norfolk's distant glory days of rural Labour disproportion; but keep in mind that even in defeat, Bellingham had a higher percentage than all but 2 of the remaining 9 East Anglian Tories...

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Last Updated 7 June 2001
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