Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
South Norfolk

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Mark Wells
Conservative Party:
Richard M. Bacon
Liberal Democratic Party:
Anne Lee
Green Party:
Stephanie Ross-Wagenknecht

Incumbent:
Rt Hon John MacGregor OBE

97 Result:
Jane Ross
16,18826.1%
John MacGregor
24,93540.2%
Barbara Hacker
17,55728.3%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
62,09778.37%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
11,84118.4%
33,66952.4%
17,30526.9%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
64,31084.1%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1618.4%
16-2411.2%
25-3919.7%
40-6529.7%
65 <21.0%

Ethnic Origin:
White99.5%
Black0.1%
Indian/Pakistani0.1%
Other non-white0.3%

Employment:
Full Time61.0%
Part Time17.2%
Self Employed16.2%
Government Schemes0.8%
Unemployed4.9%

Household SEG:
I - Professional7.7%
II - Managerial/Technical35.2%
III - Skilled (non-manual)12.3%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)27.9%
IV - Partly Skilled12.2%
V - Unskilled3.4%

Misc:
Own Residence76.2%
Rent Residence20.8%
Own Car(s)82.4%
Submissions
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13/05/01 PB Email:
I feel that with the track record of the Tory Candidate at the last general election, losing vote & 2nd place to the Lib Dems in the Vauxhall constituency where he stood, the same could happen again to this outsider. Tactical voting is becoming popular and with such a large Labour vote available to squeeze, the result must be too close to call.
20/05/01 John Brown Email:
I've heard from sources close to the Conservative office that a number of the local activists have refused to work for their candidate. I believe that the reason is that he is felt to have been imposed on them. In the circumstances it can only improve the Lib Dem chances.
23/05/01 BW Email:
I see from the Eastern Daily Press today that there's a late entrant for this constituency. Joe Neal is standing for the UK Independence Party. This must improve the chance for the Lib Dems as it will split the Tory vote.
25/05/01 PR Email:
With John MacGregor retiring after 27 years as MP his personal vote may well go to the likable Liberal Democrat candidate.
03/06/01 A.S. Email:adma@interlog.com
Given that the Conservatives are sitting on a 12-point margin, and Lab-Lib tactical swings tend to be harder to come by than Lib-Lab ones, I'd like to add a non-prediction corrective to the wall of LD ones. And it's almost a Tory prediction...by default. But if its coloured yellow, then it'll be a sign LD strategizing has compounded the didn't-think-it'd-happen-didja effect of '97...

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Last Updated 7 June 2001
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