Election Prediction Project
British General Election
Southend West

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Labour Party:
Paul Fisher
Conservative Party:
David A.A. Amess
Liberal Democratic Party:
Richard J. de Ste. Croix
UK Independence Party:
Brian Lee

David Amess

97 Result:
Alan Harley
David Amess
Nina Stimson
Total Vote Count / Turnout

92 Result: (Redistributed)
Total Vote Count / Turnout

Demographic Profile:
< 1618.0%
65 <24.9%

Ethnic Origin:
Other non-white1.0%

Full Time63.0%
Part Time14.6%
Self Employed13.4%
Government Schemes0.7%

Household SEG:
I - Professional5.7%
II - Managerial/Technical36.6%
III - Skilled (non-manual)19.7%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)24.1%
IV - Partly Skilled9.8%
V - Unskilled3.4%

Own Residence81.6%
Rent Residence17.6%
Own Car(s)69.8%
Submit Information here

19/04/01 NG Email:
Southend West will be a closely-fought contest. The Lib Dems, despite starting a long way behind, had their hearts set on winning last time. They will have to go all out to capture the Labour vote while holding onto their own modest rise if they are to unseat the Tories. Seaside towns swung very violently against the Tories last time and it's not clear what will happen in 2001. Either way, it's going to be close.
02/05/01 Sean Fear Email:fear_sean@hotmail.com
Easy Conservative hold. The Tories polled very heavily in the last set of local elections, and the local Lib Dems are lazy. One friend of mine went from 5 votes behind the Lib Dems to 800 ahead between 1999 and 2000. Safe Tory seat.
04/05/01 MB Email:
With Labour unlikely to supass 1997, and a large bedrock of red votes to squeeze - especially with new websites promoting tacticall voting, I back the Lib - Dems to snatch it off chicken runner Amiss.
22/05/01 JR Email:
Bear in mind the salience of the asylum/immigration issue in Southend, which according to national press coverage was responsible for the huge pro-Conservative swing in last year's borough elections. Amess is hugely irritating and I remember his come-from-behind victory in Basildon in '92 made me feel almost physically sick when the result was read out on telly (setting the stage for the surprise Tory victory that year) but he should win here, probably with a substantially increased majority.
26/05/01 Gary X Email:anglia6533@hotmail.com
I have lost count of the number of times the Liberals have claimed only they can challenge the Tories in this seat. They have a candidate no one knows and are putting in a record low level of activity. The most activity I have seen is from Labour. Last time they polled a lot more strongly than predicted and in the 1999 European elections beat the Liberals into third place in the constituency. Amess may very well win, but Labour is at least putting in a fight to stop him.
30/05/01 D L Cook Email:
The Lib Dems are no where to be seen in Southend West. Effectively their candidate from Jersey is merely a paper candidate - who hasn't been seen in the consituency. By comparison Labour has a very good candidate, who is running a high profile, organised campaign. They appear motivated and fighting to win - seen daily in the local papers and on the streets they are fighting hard. If current national polls are a true reflection of feeling then Southend West is going to turn Labour.

Submit Information here
Back to Eastern Index
Back to British General Election Prediction Index
Last Updated 30 May 2001
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© 1999-2001 Milton Chan

Email Webmaster