Election Prediction Project
British General Election
Fermanagh and South Tyrone

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Ulster Unionists:
James Cooper
Social Democratic & Labour:
Tommy Gallagher MLA
Sinn Fein:
Michelle Gildernew MLA
Democratic Unionist:
Maurice Morrow MLA
Conservaitive Party:

Ken Maginnis

97 Result:
Total Vote Count
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09/04/01 Nicholas Whyte Email: explorers@whyte.com
For a full profile of this seat see my site at http://explorers.whyte.com/fst.htm
If the DUP actually stand their candidate this will be a close run between the UUP and Sinn Fein. However I expect that the DUP will withdraw in a blaze of publicity before the election, enabling James Cooper to retain the saet for the UUP.
12/05/01 Nicholas Whyte Email:explorers@whyte.com
Update: I am delighted to have been proved right, as the DUP did indeed withdraw in a blaze of publicity. Or at least half right, in that they urged their voters to support not the UUP's Cooper but independent Unionist Jim Dixon. However, the bottom line remains the same: the UUP are most likely to win, and if they don't it will be the Shinners.
26/05/01 Mac Email:
This is a majority nationalist area - the reason not so at the last General election was that many nationalists didn't bother due to single unionist candidate. However now with all to play for - anti and pro agreement unionist candidates standing - it is quite likely that F&ST will revert to old form and have the highest turnout in the whole General election. The McGuiness Mid-Ulster factor will then kick in - which nationalist is most likely to take the seat. Going on recent elections and by-elections in the area, and also that Gallagher (SDLP) lives on the extreme western edge of the constituency (U2 tickets and all) Gildernew (SF)will squeeze our Cooper (UUP)
27/05/01 Liam Email:
Despite the lack of a nationalist pact to ensure a western swathe of green on the electoral map, I actually think that enough SDLP voters will stand behind Michelle Gildernew for a SF victory.
06/06/01 IJP Email:
As I thought, Independent Jim Dixon's withdrawal and subsequent re-entry has harmed his chances. The Unionist population seems to have plumped for UUP candidate Cooper, who now stands at 1/8 ahead of SF.

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Last Updated 7 June 2001
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