Election Prediction Project
British General Election
West Tyrone

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Ulster Unionists:
William J. Thompson MP
Social Democratic & Labour:
Brid Rodgers MLA
Sinn Fein:
Patrick Doherty MLA
Democratic Unionist:
David Simpson
Conservaitive Party:

William Thompson

97 Result:
Total Vote Count
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09/04/01 Nicholas Whyte Email: explorers@whyte.com
For a full profile of this seat see my site at http://explorers.whyte.com/wt.htm
The candidacy of Brid Rodgers marks the first time the SDLP have ever run a woman for a winnable seat. It also indicates that they intend to give SF's Pat Doherty a real fight for the seat. (I am inclined to discount the chances of the incumbent, Willie Thompson, being reelected but he could give the eventual winner a very close run.)
02/05/01 J.F. Breton Email:
I think it will be a very close race. For peace, I think people will choose SDLP. It will be important to support this very important process (peace) and people will understand this call.
14/05/01 Tom Barry Email:
I cannot see How the SDLP can seriously expect to win the seat. High profile or not the vote will be on the consitutional question and Brid Rodgers will be seen as being put there to stop Sinn Fein rather than oust Willie Thompson. I expect Doherty to win by 1,500-2,000 votes.
22/05/01 MK Email:michaelpkelly@yahoo.ie
I think the introduction by the SDLP of Ms Ridgers is a sign that the SDLP want to win this seat, with Ms Rodgers strong showing and Pat Doherty's lack of local knowledge it seems to be a cert for the SDLP. The Alliance withdrawel send another 1200 votes to the SDLP. Go Brid - Go Girl Power
26/05/01 Mac Email:
I cannot agreee with one of the submissions in relation to the local knowledge of various candidates. Pat Doherty (SF) has represented the area for the last five years, a fact that cannot be disputed. Brid Rogers (SDLP) has only introduced herself to the area in the last five weeks. it was generally accepted by everyone that following the Assembly results and the recent council by-elections that SF would take this seat convincingly as the only party that could defeat Willie Thompson. If by the SDLP's move in the last couple of months the nationalist vote is split and Thompson gets back in, then the SDLP should hang their heads in shame.
26/05/01 Nicholas Whyte Email:explorers@whyte.com
I'm still not calling this one, but I will note that of 27 predictions I have received at my web-site so far, only two have Thompson holding the seat; the others are evenly split, 13 think Doherty will win and 12 think Rodgers will get it. It is absurd to accuse the SDLP of running Rodgers in order to throw the seat to the Unionists - they are in this race to win, and have a good chance.
27/05/01 Liam Email:
I think that the seat will definitely be won by a nationlist. Although Bríd Rodgers is a well liked person one who I respect greatly especially in regards to Garvaghy, I think that the a wave of support from new voters ie. 18 - 22 will swing it to Sinn Féin. This same swing will produce some good results from the Nationalists all round.
31/05/01 Christopher J. Currie Email:8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca
The DUP's decision to stand down in West Tyrone obviously plays into the UUP's hand. That said, I'm willing to go out on a limb and predict that this will be a narrow win for Sinn Fein. Strategic voting among the nationalist population will certainly be a factor, and will probably allow Pat Doherty to not go to Westminster (er ...).
31/05/01 Tom Nolan Email:tomn@indigo
I am afraid that I have to disagree with those that say the SADLP motives were to be rid of Thompson. There was no doubt that Pat Dherty would have defeated Thompson and after all Sinn Fein are pro-agreement. The SDLP is merely trying to stop a Sinn Fein gain and maybe just sneak the seat themselves. I do think the West Tyrone electorate are mature enough toi see who has worked harder on the ground this past four years and I expect Donerty to get about 18,000 votes which will be more than enough to take the seat.
02/06/01 Aodhan MacUaid Email:
The Provos have got to realise that just because they have claimed divine rights and absolute powers for themselves that they cannot wish away all democratic expression. Rodgers to win.
05/06/01 IJP Email:
This is going to be extremely close, tho' Thompson needs a miracle for the UUP. Pat Doherty is a strong candidate for SF, having represented the area in Belfast and with good credentials from his performance at Stormont. On the other hand, Mrs Rodgers is also highly respected for her excellent handling of the Foot & Mouth crisis. Received wisdom is that Doherty has the edge among the Nationalist population - but there may yet be tactical voting by pro-agreement Unionists, particularly in rural areas. Too close to call.
05/06/01 Liam de Búrca Email:
Sinn Féin campaign is souring despite all the 'intimidation' claims I love Bríd but she should have stayed in Upper Bann and represent the people there and I am sure Sinn Féin would have swung behind her.
06/06/01 fear_sean@hotmail.com Email:
The SDLP have as much right to stand here as they have in any other part of Northern Ireland. I predict that the nationalist vote will split fairly evenly between SDLP and Sinn Fein, but some unionists will vote tactically for Brid Rogers to keep out Pat Doherty.

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Last Updated 7 June 2001
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