Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Camberwell and Peckham

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Rt. Hon. Harriet R. Harman
Conservative Party:
Jonathan B. Morgan AM
Liberal Democratic Party:
Donnachadh McCarthy
Green Party:
Störm Poorun

Incumbent:
Rt Hon Harriet Harman

97 Result:
Harriet Harman
19,73469.3%
Kim Humphreys
3,38311.9%
Nigel Williams
3,19811.2%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
28,47456.71%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
19,89160.4%
7,84123.8%
4,97415.1%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
32,95051.3%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1622.7%
16-2413.5%
25-3927.8%
40-6521.2%
65 <14.8%

Ethnic Origin:
White66.4%
Black26.5%
Indian/Pakistani1.8%
Other non-white5.3%

Employment:
Full Time57.7%
Part Time10.1%
Self Employed7.5%
Government Schemes2.1%
Unemployed22.6%

Household SEG:
I - Professional4.9%
II - Managerial/Technical21.7%
III - Skilled (non-manual)17.6%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)19.9%
IV - Partly Skilled15.4%
V - Unskilled10.0%

Misc:
Own Residence20.4%
Rent Residence78.0%
Own Car(s)36.1%
Submissions
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11/05/01 LB Email:
Harriet Harman is in no danger of losing the seat as it is very safe and voted for Labour in a by-election in the dark days of 1982. It is a seat with a large black population and much poverty and disadvantage in the prosperous London region. It has a rather small electorate and a traditionally bad turnout - it is probable that it will drop below 50% this time. The Lib Dems have been making steady inroads into Labour wards in the area but the best they can do in the general election is to collect the worthless prize of second place.

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Last Updated 4 June 2001
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