Election Prediction Project
British General Election
Carshalton and Wallington

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Labour Party:
Margaret Cooper
Conservative Party:
Kenneth Andrew
Liberal Democratic Party:
Thomas A. Brake
Green Party:
Simon N. Dixon

Thomas Brake

97 Result:
Andrew Theobald
Nigel Forman
Thomas Brake
Total Vote Count / Turnout

92 Result: (Redistributed)
Total Vote Count / Turnout

Demographic Profile:
< 1620.8%
65 <17.8%

Ethnic Origin:
Other non-white2.1%

Full Time65.7%
Part Time14.3%
Self Employed11.8%
Government Schemes0.5%

Household SEG:
I - Professional6.2%
II - Managerial/Technical32.5%
III - Skilled (non-manual)19.5%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)26.2%
IV - Partly Skilled10.5%
V - Unskilled3.7%

Own Residence68.8%
Rent Residence30.1%
Own Car(s)72.0%
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19/04/01 NG Email:
Tom Brake faces an uphill struggle here in Carshalton and Wallington. He is defending a slim majority and will have to squeeze the rather sizeable Labour vote here in order to survive. But the Labour vote here has proved pretty resilient and this seat remains a little too close to call ...
12/05/01 Nich Starling Email:Starling@nejs.fsworld.co.uk
I have family who live in Carshalton and they swear by the Lib Dems ! The local council saw excellent Lib Dem results in 1998 whilst Tom Brake does all the things an MP should do.
15/05/01 Niall Dologhan Email:
I am a local (Lib Dem) Councillor in London Borough of Sutton...I think Tom Brake will hold the seat with an increased majority. He is a hardworking MP who has got a lot of personal support in the constituency.
My observation is that the Labour vote is very soft this time around...I think there was sceptiscm among same Labour voters that we would win the seat last time...Now that they have seen that we are the only choice to beat the Tory here they are swinging around. Even Labour activists here have privately admitted having difficulty not telling people to vote tactically. With a 23% Labour vote to squeeze and his hard work I do not think Tom will have a problem although it will still be tight...
The Tories have already started a dirty campaign and are being funded by their 'millionaire' backers. I think In the last six months I have seen more Tory leaflets than in the last 10 years all together. However, I am sure that residents will remember that it is only the Liberal Democrats who have been in contact with them regularly for the past 25 years.
15/05/01 FM Email:
A sure win. Popular Lib Dem former Local MP as Parliamentary Candidate versus an unknown Conservative Parliamentary Candidate from Loughborough. Conservative proposed Tax cuts do not ring as true or realistic and lacks transparency which the electorate (both local to this area and nationally) want to see. Many Labour voters disillusioned since the New Labour Government will move over to Liberal Democrats whilst many loyal Labour voters may consider tactical vote to keep the Conservatives at bay.
22/05/01 Alastair Matlock Email:
Carshalton and Wallington fell to the Liberal Democrats on the strength of an unholy tactical voting alliance between New Labour and he LibDems. Look for this seat to return to the Conservatives on polling day
31/05/01 C Hall Email:
Polling here in Carshalton & Wallington shows a strong lead for Tom Brake over the Tory who has been 'parachuted' in from Loughborough where he lost in 1997. Labour supporters know that they cannot win here and are heading for the tactical vote. Even Ken Livingstone has advised local Labour supporters to vote for Tom Brake. No "unholy alliance" here, just a desire to avoid a return to Tory boom and Bust, high unemployment and being the poor man of Europe. Rollon 7th June. I cannot wait to see Ken Andrews face!
06/06/01 Simon Dixon Email:
I'm the Green Party candidate for this constituency, and the feeling I've been getting during the campaign is that the LibDems will hold onto this seat, although the result will be extremely close as in 1997. There is a lot of discontent among 'old Labour' supporters in the area, a number of whom are saying they will vote Green. The Conservative candidate is not a local man, and this will almost certainly cost the Tories votes.

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Last Updated 7 June 2001
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