Election Prediction Project
British General Election
Croydon Central

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Labour Party:
Geraint R. Davies
Conservative Party:
David L. Congdon
Liberal Democratic Party:
Paul J.H. Booth
UK Independence Party:
James R. Feisenberger

Geraint Davies

97 Result:
Geraint Davies
David Congdon
George Schlich
Total Vote Count / Turnout

92 Result: (Redistributed)
Total Vote Count / Turnout

Demographic Profile:
< 1620.3%
65 <16.2%

Ethnic Origin:
Other non-white3.5%

Full Time68.5%
Part Time11.9%
Self Employed10.2%
Government Schemes0.7%

Household SEG:
I - Professional6.8%
II - Managerial/Technical35.8%
III - Skilled (non-manual)20.3%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)23.2%
IV - Partly Skilled8.4%
V - Unskilled3.5%

Own Residence68.8%
Rent Residence30.0%
Own Car(s)67.7%
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24/05/01 Paul R Davis Email:pdavis1@vtown.com.au
Well, somebody has to risk looking silly on this difficult one. Before 1997, anybody who said that Labour would win this revised, and very large, Croydon Central, would have been considered a candidate for entry to its most famous institution, the Bethlem Royal Psychiatric Hospital! Now, it seems silly to predict against Labour. Labour polled 10,000 more votes than the Tories across the three Croydon Borough seats in 1997. This was a huge turnaround even from the Council Elections of 1994, when they took control for the first time ever. In 1998 they retained control, with an identical majoriy, although with seats changing hands in each direction. "Central" is now Croydon's marginal seat. The majority from 1997 looks large, but in such a big seat it is only 7%. David Congdon was formerly M.P. for the "old" Croydon N.E. and Geraint Davies the leader of Croydon Council. There really does not seem much evidence here either way. I am risking saying Tory gain for no better reasons than that 1) Surely the Conservatives must do better on June 7 than the National Polls suggest with two weeks to go. They have in each of the last three elections. 2) If any Labour vote is "soft" and liable to abstain, it is the traditional Labour council-estate support, and there is a large chunk of this in New Addington Estate. Those voters have also had a Labour Council to get cross with for seven years now, and won't feel they owe the "New" Labour Government any favours. Other more "middle-class" (in so far as that still means much) seats in London will stay with Labour but I think the Tories will gain this one, but this is not much more than speculation.
27/05/01 PSR Email:
I certainly can't type as much as the last contributor, my hands would fall off; but I can say that I think Labour may well hold on to this seat. According to the opinion polls The Tories are not only not gaining on Labour but could do worse, they also suggest that Labour are likely to do even better in London.
30/05/01 Email:
Paul Davis is probably right. Canvass returns show that this riding will be very close, but my hunch is that David Congdon will squeak it in the end. Croydon Central simply is not a natural Labour seat. Although the demographics are gradually moving their way, they only really have the New Addington estate which is likely to produce a low turnout this time. Con gain with a very small majority.

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Last Updated 6 June 2001
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