Election Prediction Project
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British General Election
Erith and Thamesmead

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
John E. Austin
Conservative Party:
Mark J. Brooks
Liberal Democratic Party:
B. James Kempton

Incumbent:
John Austin

97 Result:
John Austin-Walker
25,81262.1%
Nadhim Zahawi
8,38820.2%
Alex Grigg
5,00112.0%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
41,58766.13%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
21,24543.0%
15,61531.6%
12,55525.4%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
49,41574.2%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1623.8%
16-2413.9%
25-3926.6%
40-6521.9%
65 <13.8%

Ethnic Origin:
White84.6%
Black5.3%
Indian/Pakistani6.7%
Other non-white3.4%

Employment:
Full Time65.9%
Part Time11.6%
Self Employed8.4%
Government Schemes1.1%
Unemployed13.0%

Household SEG:
I - Professional3.6%
II - Managerial/Technical22.2%
III - Skilled (non-manual)20.2%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)28.6%
IV - Partly Skilled16.2%
V - Unskilled5.2%

Misc:
Own Residence57.7%
Rent Residence41.5%
Own Car(s)61.5%
Submissions
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17/05/01 LB Email:
Erith and Thamesmead was a new creation at the 1997 boundary review. It is a working class area by the Thames in SE London. Thamesmead is a 'New Town' built in the 1960s and 1970s. It was held by Labour MP John Austin on a massive swing in 1997; he benefited from the collapse of the SDP vote in the Woolwich area (John Cartwright had won Woolwich for the SDP in 1983 and 1987 and polled fairly well in 1992). The seat is even safer than it looks on the 1992 figures.

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Last Updated 17 May 2001
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