Election Prediction Project
British General Election
Finchley and Golders Green

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Labour Party:
Rudolf J. Vis
Conservative Party:
John L. Marshall
Liberal Democratic Party:
Sarah Teather
UK Independence Party:
Fabian Olins
Green Party:
Miranda J. Dunn

Dr Rudi Vis

97 Result:
Rudolph Vis
John Marshall
Jonathan Davies
Total Vote Count / Turnout

92 Result: (Redistributed)
Total Vote Count / Turnout

Demographic Profile:
< 1618.4%
65 <19.0%

Ethnic Origin:
Other non-white8.1%

Full Time62.4%
Part Time10.6%
Self Employed17.0%
Government Schemes0.8%

Household SEG:
I - Professional12.2%
II - Managerial/Technical46.8%
III - Skilled (non-manual)16.7%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)12.5%
IV - Partly Skilled7.1%
V - Unskilled2.1%

Own Residence65.5%
Rent Residence32.7%
Own Car(s)67.0%
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22/05/01 Alastair Matlock Email:
This constituency is most notable for it's former MP, the Rt Hon. Baroness Thatcher, "the Iron Lady" and for eleven years Britain's Conservative Prime Minister. Again, I believe this seat fell from Conservative hands on the strength of the Labour wave in 1997 and more traditional Tory voting patterns will reappear here on polling day.
22/05/01 A.S. Email:adma@interlog.com
The "beyond wildest predictions" '97 landslide in a nutshell: not only did Labour conquer Maggie Thatcher's old fiefdom, but the victor, Rudi Vis, didn't even know what hit him. Like almost all of Labour's deliriously flukey NxNW London pickups, from the Harrows to Enfield Southgate, it's extremely vulnerable to a swingback--but who, back in '97, could have imagined that might *not* swing back next time, that Vis'n'co. had a chance of being more than just one-term wonders? Raising Labour's red flag over Thatcher territory is one thing; *reelection* would give those old anti-Thatcherites the thrill of turning a sword...
26/05/01 LB Email:
A few figures about Finchley and Golder's Green: Labour were only 1% behind in the 1999 Euro election, a very bad result for the party. Labour were 5% ahead in the borough elections in 1998. It is over 20% non-white, with an additional large Jewish vote, and has a highly educated population. Is this the kind of place which is going to swing behind Hague's campaign? I tend to doubt it. While Finchley elected Thatcher, her majorities here in the 1980s were not overwhelming. Labour's margin of victory in 1997 was reasonable and it is 45th on the Tory target list, which if they won it suggests that the Tories would be up to around 210 seats nationally (probably more given their relative weakness in London). It could be close, but if we take the polls at all seriously F&GG is more likely Labour than not.
01/06/01 Liam Email:
This will remain Labour no doubt. Even if the Tories do well they will not win back the London seats. Demographic change will ensure that along with Tory extremism. Labour all the way in London
03/06/01 KF Email:
Labour will hold Finchley and Golders Green. The Conservatives are doing especially badly in suburban North London and will not produce enough of a swing to win back this former safe Tory seat.

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Last Updated 6 June 2001
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