Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Holborn and St Pancras

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Rt. Hon. Frank G. Dobson
Conservative Party:
Roseanne Serelli
Liberal Democratic Party:
Nathaniel J. Green
UK Independence Party:
Magnus Nielsen-Bewick
Green Party:
Robert E. Whitley

Incumbent:
Rt Hon Frank Dobson

97 Result:
Frank Dobson
24,70765.0%
Julian Smith
6,80417.9%
Justine McGuinnes
4,75012.5%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
37,99760.28%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
20,37754.3%
10,59028.2%
5,21313.9%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
37,56061.8%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1617.5%
16-2413.2%
25-3928.0%
40-6524.4%
65 <16.9%

Ethnic Origin:
White79.3%
Black6.1%
Indian/Pakistani8.2%
Other non-white6.4%

Employment:
Full Time60.8%
Part Time9.1%
Self Employed12.7%
Government Schemes1.7%
Unemployed15.8%

Household SEG:
I - Professional10.6%
II - Managerial/Technical35.1%
III - Skilled (non-manual)15.7%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)15.0%
IV - Partly Skilled11.6%
V - Unskilled6.0%

Misc:
Own Residence24.1%
Rent Residence73.1%
Own Car(s)35.6%
Submissions
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25/04/01 DH Email:
"Dobbo" has held this seat since 1979 - whatever the Tory revival (if indeed there is one) he will be safe here.
22/05/01 JL Email:
Yes, Dobbo will win - will the sun rise tomorrow? The only issue is the effect is virtual disappearance from the political scene since his disastrous defeat in the Mayoral election will have on the Labour vote, and how much the Tory support will also slide. With these factors and a June poll certain to affect the normally low student turnout - 7000 + students are on the register - apparent voter turnout is likely to be exceptionally low.
03/06/01 JL Email:John.lefley@btinternet.com
Expect a surprise, with a complete collapse of the Tory vote, and LibDems easily achieving second place. Dobbo will be well ahead, but his majority could be sharply cut by abstentions and some left-leaning former supporters switching to the SocAllce.

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Last Updated 4 June 2001
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© 1999-2001 Milton Chan

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