Election Prediction Project
British General Election

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Labour Party:
Christopher A. Purnell
Conservative Party:
John R. Horam
Liberal Democratic Party:
Christopher S. Maines
UK Independence Party:
John Youles

John Horam

97 Result:
Sue Polydorou
John Horam
Chris Maines
Total Vote Count / Turnout

92 Result: (Redistributed)
Total Vote Count / Turnout

Demographic Profile:
< 1619.2%
65 <18.7%

Ethnic Origin:
Other non-white1.2%

Full Time65.5%
Part Time15.1%
Self Employed11.9%
Government Schemes0.5%

Household SEG:
I - Professional7.6%
II - Managerial/Technical38.4%
III - Skilled (non-manual)19.1%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)22.3%
IV - Partly Skilled8.0%
V - Unskilled3.2%

Own Residence81.2%
Rent Residence17.4%
Own Car(s)78.3%
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19/04/01 DH Email:
There is a Labour vote here of about 10,000 to squeeze and there is a Liberal tradition in the area, dating back to the famous by-election of 1962. I think they'll take it this time.
19/04/01 NG Email:
Orpington MP, John Horam, will probably hold his seat for the Tories in 2001 but the Lib Dems cannot be written off yet. They have long cherished hopes of winning back this famous by-election gain and they will be putting everything into squeezing the Labour vote. It's not clear that it will pay off but still just a little too close to call ...
01/05/01 JB Email:
Very close. Will all ride on how amny Labour voters will switch to the Lib Dem (Chris Maines) to stop the Tory. Lib Dems putting in more effort than any time in 25 years. Rumour of possible vote trading on www.tacticalvoter.net by Old Bexley Lib Dem voters with Orpington Labour voters should be worrying the Tories.
02/05/01 M.O Email:
After 30 odd years of a Conservative council which raided reserves & council workers pensionfund & closed schools all in the name of low council tax, the Liberal Democrat led council has started to repair the damage. After only 3 years the Libdem led council has been voted the best council in London by a MORI poll. This excellent performance in local government with labour support augers well for a Libdem win in Orpington.
06/05/01 MB Email:
Tory canvas returns leaked to The Sunday Times suggest this one going to the Lib-Dems.
06/05/01 Sunday Times Michael Prescott and Eben Black
Tories fear worst ever defeat as Blair gives pledge on tax (front cover lead)
Telephone canvassers at Conservative Central Office have found that the party suffers from lower support than in 1997 in 15 target seats in or just outside London. The canvass results suggest that Tory marginals such as Orpington and Chipping Barnet will be lost.
08/05/01 PSR Email:
If the Lib Dems could have designed a Tory seat to win in this election it would be Orpington. Here's why: only requires a swing of 2.45, Tories are performing the worst in London, Labour vote is strong enough to squeeze but not strong enough to pose any threat, Tory John Horam doesn't have a high public profile to help him but is disliked by Lib Dems and Labour for deserting them both and Chris Maines stood in 97'and knows the area well.
10/05/01 MC Email:
The small majority that the Lib Dems need to overtake Labour would probably have been even smaller if the Provisional Liberals hadn't stood last time as well. They only got a few hundred, but most of these were probably confused Liberal Democrats. With the amount of effort that appears to be being put into the Lib Dem campaign I'd expect a comfortable win here.
11/05/01 Paul Leyland Email:
Several days into campaign, no sign of tories. Lib Dems going flat out. Have the Tories thrown the towel in to defend Old Bexley & Sidcup next door against Labour onslaught? Time to move projection from marginal to Lib Dem win.
11/05/01 Sean Fear Email:fear_sean@hotmail.com
Orpington can't be regarded as a foregone conclusion (especially not because a load of Lib Dem workers insist they are about to win the seat). The fact is that the Lib Dems will do very well in most seats to win the vote share they obtained in 1997. Equally, in most seats, the Conservatives are likely to win a higher vote share than in 1997. All of this makes it more likely than not that the Conservatives will hold the seat.
12/05/01 Webmaster
Sorry for the confusion. A number of the LibDem submission were removed today as we identify those with identical sources (different names). A Friendly Reminder for concerned citizens/desperate political operatives: Postings with no name (annoymous) will be posted, postings with inconsistant fake names will not.
13/05/01 PSR Email:
I don't know who "Sean Fear" is but he displays typical Tory arrogance that anyone who suggests that they could lose Orpington must work for the Lib Dems! I certainly don't but I look at the facts: small majority, tactical voting,Tories doing badly in London etc; Also who says that the Tories will increase their share of the vote in most seats, they are not exactly blazing a trail of glory under William Hague as the opinion polls point out.
14/05/01 CP Email:
Tories invisible again this weekend. Lib Dems swamping area. Looking certainly like an LD gain.
03/06/01 A.S. Email:adma@interlog.com
The geographic odd man out--and the one that got away--among prospective London Lib Dem pickups from Tories in '97. Orpington *should* be super-Tory according to the Bromley-Beckenham model, but a long-long-ago byelection freak has made this eternally hallowed ground for lusting Liberals. Interestingly, Horam himself is a Labour-to-SDP-to-Tory switcher (not all in Orpington, god forsake). Homespun LD spin doctors or not, one to watch...

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Last Updated 6 June 2001
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