Election Prediction Project
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British General Election
Birmingham, Hodge Hill

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Rt. Hon. Terry A.G. Davis
Conservative Party:
Deborah Lewis
Liberal Democratic Party:
Tracy J. O'Brien
UK Independence Party:
Vivian Harvey

Incumbent:
Rt Hon Terry Davis

97 Result:
Tery Davis
22,39865.6%
Ed Grant
8,19824.0%
Hadyn Thomas
2,8918.5%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
34,14760.91%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
21,89553.6%
14,82736.3%
3,7409.2%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
40,83270.0%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1623.5%
16-2413.3%
25-3920.1%
40-6522.7%
65 <20.4%

Ethnic Origin:
White83.0%
Black3.7%
Indian/Pakistani11.8%
Other non-white1.5%

Employment:
Full Time62.4%
Part Time12.8%
Self Employed5.7%
Government Schemes2.0%
Unemployed17.0%

Household SEG:
I - Professional2.0%
II - Managerial/Technical14.7%
III - Skilled (non-manual)12.7%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)37.4%
IV - Partly Skilled20.1%
V - Unskilled5.8%

Misc:
Own Residence54.1%
Rent Residence44.5%
Own Car(s)48.0%
Submissions
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21/05/01 LB Email:
Hodge Hill is an industrial seat in east Birmingham and is a working class area. It is predominantly white and has a high proportion of council tenants. Labour lost it in 1977 in a by-election (it was then called Stechford) but won it back in 1979 and never lost it in the 1980s. Expect a low turnout and a fall in the Labour vote, but don't expect anything other than another term for Terry Davis, the Labour MP since 1979.

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Last Updated 21 May 2001
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