Election Prediction Project
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British General Election
Birmingham, Sparkbrook and Small Heath

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Roger D. Godsiff
Conservative Party:
Iftkhar Hussain
Liberal Democratic Party:
Qassim Afzal
Independent:
Allah Ditta

Incumbent:
Roger Godsiff

97 Result:
Roger Godsiff
26,84164.3%
Kenneth Hardeman
7,31517.5%
Roger Harmer
3,8899.3%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
41,76557.11%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
31,05263.1%
12,60425.6%
3,9168.0%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
49,22967.7%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1629.8%
16-2415.3%
25-3921.5%
40-6520.6%
65 <12.9%

Ethnic Origin:
White47.9%
Black7.5%
Indian/Pakistani40.3%
Other non-white4.3%

Employment:
Full Time56.4%
Part Time10.1%
Self Employed7.1%
Government Schemes3.0%
Unemployed23.5%

Household SEG:
I - Professional3.3%
II - Managerial/Technical16.2%
III - Skilled (non-manual)10.4%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)28.2%
IV - Partly Skilled22.9%
V - Unskilled7.8%

Misc:
Own Residence53.5%
Rent Residence45.2%
Own Car(s)43.9%
Submissions
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28/04/01 Peter F. Jones Email:
Sparkbrook and Small Heath will be a battle between Liberal Democrats and Labour. The constituency has a population which is 44% muslim. Many of the independent muslim candidates in the local elections have come out in support of Q Afzal. The local election vote in May 2000 was very close between Lib Dem and Labour with substantial numbers of independent votes.
05/05/01 LB Email:
Labour hold, easily. Most of this seat was Roy Hattersley's from 1964 to 1997 and Labour locally is strong in appealing to the Muslim community. I imagine a Lib Dem second place but no more than 30% in any circumstances. Results in low-turnout local elections in seats with big Labour majorities should be taken with a big pinch of salt.
21/05/01 ib Email:
I actually live in this seat and the large Muslim population are not happy with their current MP and may well support the LibDems or the People's Justice Party. However, it is an extremely safe seat for Labour, so it is difficult to see any change - but as there seems to be no activity on Labour's part and plenty from the PJP and the LibDems, who knows.

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Last Updated 21 May 2001
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