Election Prediction Project
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British General Election
Boston and Skegness

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Elaine Bird
Conservative Party:
Mark J.M. Simmonds
Liberal Democratic Party:
Duncan Moffatt
UK Independence Party:
Cyril Wakefield

Incumbent:
Sir Richard Body

97 Result:
Phil McCauley
19,10341.0%
Richard Body
19,75042.4%
Jim Dodsworth
7,72116.6%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
46,57468.87%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
14,29928.2%
25,72150.8%
10,61321.0%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
50,63377.2%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1617.8%
16-2411.7%
25-3918.7%
40-6528.6%
65 <23.3%

Ethnic Origin:
White99.3%
Black0.2%
Indian/Pakistani0.2%
Other non-white0.2%

Employment:
Full Time57.8%
Part Time15.8%
Self Employed15.0%
Government Schemes1.6%
Unemployed9.7%

Household SEG:
I - Professional3.4%
II - Managerial/Technical25.7%
III - Skilled (non-manual)11.7%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)32.0%
IV - Partly Skilled20.1%
V - Unskilled4.4%

Misc:
Own Residence67.3%
Rent Residence30.0%
Own Car(s)71.8%
Submissions
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25/04/01 JR Email:robertsat13@cwcom.net
I think Labour will win Boston and Skegness, which was one of the very few Tory seaside seats not to fall last time. Eurosceptic maverick Sir Richard Body is retiring, meaning the Tories will lose his personal vote. Also, because of Body's anti-euro views, the Referendum Party didn't stand here at the last election so there isn't a reserve of two or three thousand extra right-wing votes that the Tories can draw on. The Tories are said to be worried. They have insisted all along that all their central resources will go into targeting Labour and LibDem seats, not shoring up their own marginals. However, today's Times lists Boston & Skegness as one of the seats Tory Central Office think needs special attention and will get visits from the Hague 'Battle Bus'.
10/05/01 Sean Fear Email:fear_sean@hotmail.com
This comes within the top 10 seats in the country in terms of the proportion of the population employed in agriculture. All rural seats are moving to the Tories at the moment (apart from those where Scottish and Welsh nationalists are well-entrenched.) The Conservatives will hold this with an increased majority.
14/05/01 mb Email:
Sean Fear is mistaken. The pre-'97 Holland with Boston seat was in the top 10 agricultural constituencies. Most of the agricultural population however went into South Holland; this seat is a country town and seaside resort seat and it is more akin to (for example) NW Norfolk across the Wash. The Tories would without doubt have lost it last time without the formidable presence of Richard Body and the chances are that without him this time it will fall.

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Last Updated 7 June 2001
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