Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Coventry South

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
James D. Cunningham
Conservative Party:
Heather Wheeler
Liberal Democratic Party:
Vincent J. McKee
Socialist Alliance:
Robert Windsor

Incumbent:
Jim Cunningham

97 Result:
Jim Cunningham
25,51150.9%
Paul Ivey
14,55829.0%
Gordon Macdonald
4,6179.2%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
50,12469.79%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
19,77034.7%
22,67439.8%
5,2609.2%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
56,93377.4%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1620.2%
16-2414.0%
25-3920.1%
40-6525.8%
65 <19.8%

Ethnic Origin:
White90.6%
Black1.4%
Indian/Pakistani6.5%
Other non-white1.4%

Employment:
Full Time63.4%
Part Time14.7%
Self Employed8.4%
Government Schemes1.7%
Unemployed11.9%

Household SEG:
I - Professional10.6%
II - Managerial/Technical26.0%
III - Skilled (non-manual)12.2%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)25.8%
IV - Partly Skilled17.2%
V - Unskilled4.0%

Misc:
Own Residence69.4%
Rent Residence29.6%
Own Car(s)62.3%
Submissions
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21/05/01 LB Email:
The South seat contains the most plush middle class areas of Coventry (some of which are very grand indeed) but also the city centre. Its recent history is complicated. It contains elements from two old seats, SE and SW. SW was Labour in 1974-79 and Tory in 1979-97 and was a key marginal seat. SE was a safe Labour seat until 1991, when its MP Dave Nellist was kicked out for association with the Militant organisation. Nellist stood as an independent in 1992 and came a very strong third with nearly 30% - he was a hard-working MP. Anti-Labour socialists still do well in parts of the seat - they have won all the recent local elections in the central St Michaels ward from Labour, and the socialist candidate Robert Windsor won in 2000. The Conservatives did well in the outlying parts of South as well, so in a close election a Tory gain against a split left vote is possible (it nearly happened in 1992 in SE). Given the national context Labour should be all right this time but if things go wrong for Labour it could be very sticky.

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Last Updated 21 May 2001
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