Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Ludlow

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Nigel Knowles
Conservative Party:
Martin Taylor-Smith
Liberal Democratic Party:
Matthew R. Green
Green Party:
James E. Gaffney

Incumbent:
Christopher Gill

97 Result:
Nuala O'Kane
11,74525.4%
Christopher Gill
19,63342.4%
Ian Huffer
13,72429.7%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
46,28575.55%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
10,13421.4%
24,41551.6%
12,10825.6%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
47,30081.1%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1618.3%
16-2411.7%
25-3918.9%
40-6530.1%
65 <21.0%

Ethnic Origin:
White99.5%
Black0.1%
Indian/Pakistani0.2%
Other non-white0.3%

Employment:
Full Time55.1%
Part Time15.9%
Self Employed21.1%
Government Schemes1.6%
Unemployed6.2%

Household SEG:
I - Professional6.1%
II - Managerial/Technical38.1%
III - Skilled (non-manual)9.1%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)26.6%
IV - Partly Skilled14.9%
V - Unskilled3.9%

Misc:
Own Residence71.0%
Rent Residence24.1%
Own Car(s)80.6%
Submissions
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03/05/01 mb Email:
In most seats where the LibDems were only narrowly ahead of Labour before the '97 election, Labour overtook them (in some cases going on to win the seat). Not in Ludlow where the LibDems managed to increase the gap between them and Labour. Since then they have continued to campaign vigorously and have a large and soft Labour vote to squeeze.
22/05/01 JL Email:
This seat will be a LibDem gain - the only factor working against them is the possiblilty of over-confidence. Their candidate has been active in the area for years, they have an excellent local organisation, and Charles Kennedy would not have visited if they did not have high hopes of success.
05/06/01 A.S. Email:adma@interlog.com
Another non-prediction corrective to Lib Dem overexuberance. But with Chris Gill standing down, maybe the Tory patch's a bit looser than it looks...
06/06/01 JL Email:
I have it on very good authority that the LibDems regard this as won, and the Tory private polls confirm this. LibDems are not given to overstating their chances.

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Last Updated 7 June 2001
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