Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Mansfield

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
J. Alan Meale
Conservative Party:
William Wellesley
Liberal Democratic Party:
Timothy J. Hill

Incumbent:
Alan Meale

97 Result:
Alan Meale
30,55664.4%
Tim Frost
10,03821.2%
Phil Smith
5,24411.1%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
47,42670.72%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
29,93254.4%
18,20833.1%
6,92512.6%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
55,06581.4%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1620.8%
16-2412.6%
25-3922.1%
40-6526.6%
65 <17.9%

Ethnic Origin:
White98.7%
Black0.4%
Indian/Pakistani0.5%
Other non-white0.4%

Employment:
Full Time60.7%
Part Time17.7%
Self Employed8.5%
Government Schemes2.1%
Unemployed11.0%

Household SEG:
I - Professional3.4%
II - Managerial/Technical23.4%
III - Skilled (non-manual)11.3%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)37.2%
IV - Partly Skilled16.4%
V - Unskilled4.8%

Misc:
Own Residence69.1%
Rent Residence30.0%
Own Car(s)65.1%
Submissions
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05/05/01 JR Email:
Mansfield is the heart of what was once the Nottinghamshire coalfield. The state of the coal industry has not surprisingly had a major impact on its politics in the past twenty years. During the 1984-85 miners strike the Nottinghamshire workers kept on working and formed their own union, the Union of Democratic Mineworkers (UDM). Right-wing Labour MP Don Concannon - a strong supporter of the UDM, retired in 1987 and his replacement as Labour candidate was Alan Meale, a left-wing official in the official National Union of Mineworkers, led by Arthur Scargill. The working miners swung away from Labour, to the Tories, and in smaller numbers to a breakaway 'Moderate Labour' candidate. Alan Meale scraped through in this former Labour stronghold by just 56 votes in the 1987 election, jointly the smallest majority of the election (along with Brecon and Radnor). However, the Tories showed little gratitude to the Notts mineworkers for breaking the strike and the mining industry was almost completely wiped out in the early 90s. There were predictably large swings back to Labour in 1992 and 1997. Alan Meale's career as a junior minister may have been shortlived and unsuccessful but at least he need no longer worry about his seat here in Mansfield.

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Last Updated 7 May2001
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