Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Nottingham East

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
John Heppell
Conservative Party:
Richard Allan
Liberal Democratic Party:
Tim Ball
Socialist Alliance:
Peter Radcliff

Incumbent:
John Heppell

97 Result:
John Heppell
24,75562.3%
Andrew Raca
9,33623.5%
Kevin Mulloy
4,00810.1%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
39,74460.60%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
25,02652.6%
17,34636.4%
3,6957.8%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
47,61569.5%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1620.6%
16-2415.5%
25-3924.2%
40-6521.9%
65 <17.8%

Ethnic Origin:
White84.3%
Black6.6%
Indian/Pakistani7.0%
Other non-white2.1%

Employment:
Full Time59.5%
Part Time12.3%
Self Employed7.9%
Government Schemes1.9%
Unemployed18.4%

Household SEG:
I - Professional4.8%
II - Managerial/Technical25.8%
III - Skilled (non-manual)13.8%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)25.6%
IV - Partly Skilled16.9%
V - Unskilled6.0%

Misc:
Own Residence50.4%
Rent Residence48.3%
Own Car(s)46.9%
Submissions
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05/06/01 Christopher J. Currie Email:8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca
Over 50% in 1992 and over 60% in 1997 should equal over 60% again in 2001. Labour is in no danger.
05/06/01 A.S. Email:adma@interlog.com
Nottingham turned particularly violently against the Tories in '92; this is where, I believe, that year's largest margin of defeat for a Tory incumbent occurred (16 points). Who could have known how commonplace defeats at that scale were to be 5 years later...

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Last Updated 5 June 2001
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