Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Shrewsbury and Atcham

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Paul W.B. Marsden
Conservative Party:
Anthea E.J. McIntyre
Liberal Democratic Party:
Jonathan D. Rule
UK Independence Party:
Denis Brookes

Incumbent:
Paul Marsden

97 Result:
Paul Marsden
20,48437.0%
Derek Conway
18,81434.0%
Anne Woolland
13,83825.0%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
55,34475.25%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
15,15726.0%
26,68145.8%
15,71627.0%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
58,23177.6%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1619.6%
16-2412.3%
25-3920.7%
40-6528.0%
65 <19.4%

Ethnic Origin:
White99.0%
Black0.2%
Indian/Pakistani0.2%
Other non-white0.6%

Employment:
Full Time60.7%
Part Time18.0%
Self Employed13.5%
Government Schemes1.5%
Unemployed6.2%

Household SEG:
I - Professional6.2%
II - Managerial/Technical33.5%
III - Skilled (non-manual)14.0%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)26.0%
IV - Partly Skilled14.0%
V - Unskilled4.3%

Misc:
Own Residence71.8%
Rent Residence25.7%
Own Car(s)74.8%
Submissions
Submit Information here

09/04/01 Max Moore moomax71@hotmail.com
The Shrewsbury constituency consists of tis beautiful medieval town and much surrounding countryside. A safe Conservative seat before 1997, it was a surprise when Paul Marsden took the constituency from ex-MP Derek Conway. He is defending a small majority of under 2000, which makes him vulnerable to even a small Tory revival. Local wranglings over his continued cadidature and splits in the local CLP make it even more likely that the Tories will recapture this seat, that they should never have lost.
17/05/01 JR Email:
If this is such a dead cert to return to the Tory fold then why is Derek Conway, the Tory incumbent who surprisingly lost in 1997, making a comeback bid in Ted Heath's old stronghold of Bexley and Sidcup rather than giving it another go in Shrewsbury?
05/06/01 A.S. Email:adma@interlog.com
The Tory hold on Shrewsbury was actually somewhat wishy-washy going into 1997 (mid-40s in 1992), and the apparent weakness of the Labour gain & mandate could be attributed to vestigial tactical uncertainty--LD was second in 1992, and still held on to a healthy quarter of the vote in 1997. It can be said that Marsden's from-behind victory now thoroughly dashes Lib Dem hopes; by being elected, he's automatically the strategic anti-Tory. Perhaps, next time and given how things are going, it'll be LD's turn to be the strategic anti-*Labour* choice in Shrewsbury...
06/06/01 RG Email:
In light of the farmer backlash against Labour and the potential weakening of the Tory vote by the UK independence candidate this must be the best chance ever for a LIb Dem win. With a bit of tactical voting it could be possible to stop Shrewsbury & Atcham becoming, yet again a Tory backwater.

Submit Information here
Back to Midlands Index
Back to British General Election Prediction Index
Last Updated 7 June 2001
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© 1999-2001 Milton Chan

Email Webmaster