Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Wellingborough

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Paul D. Stinchcombe
Conservative Party:
Peter W. Bone
Liberal Democratic Party:
Peter Gaskell
UK Independence Party:
Anthony R. Ellwood

Incumbent:
Paul Stinchcombe

97 Result:
Paul Stinchcombe
24,85444.2%
Peter Fry
24,66743.8%
Peter Smith
5,2799.4%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
56,28975.10%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
20,48633.9%
32,30253.4%
7,71412.7%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
60,50281.4%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1621.1%
16-2413.5%
25-3921.5%
40-6526.4%
65 <17.4%

Ethnic Origin:
White94.6%
Black1.9%
Indian/Pakistani2.8%
Other non-white0.7%

Employment:
Full Time67.2%
Part Time14.4%
Self Employed10.7%
Government Schemes0.9%
Unemployed6.9%

Household SEG:
I - Professional4.4%
II - Managerial/Technical28.9%
III - Skilled (non-manual)12.8%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)34.6%
IV - Partly Skilled13.3%
V - Unskilled4.6%

Misc:
Own Residence72.4%
Rent Residence26.4%
Own Car(s)72.4%
Submissions
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02/05/01 JR Email:
This seat has the smallest Labour majority in Britain, and it would take a fool to predict which way it will go. The portents are good for Paul Stinchcombe though - Labour gained seats in the 1999 borough elections to take majority control of the Council, and this is one of those rapidly-growing areas with a young, aspirational and politically fluid population, that have looked so favourably on Tony Blair and New Labour. The Tory challenger is Peter Bone, one of four extreme right wingers standing in marginal seats who were profiled in today's Guardian. Bone boasted to the Tory conference in 1995 that he paid trainees in his business just 87 pence an hour, and called for the withdrawal of all state support to single mums and their children. Those quotes were used against him in 1997 when he lost the Tory stronghold of Pudsey, and they will come back to haunt him again.
13/05/01 Sean Fear Email:fear_sean@hotmail.com
With a tiny Labour majority, and the Conservatives slightly better placed in the polls than they were four years ago, realistically this is too close to call.

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Last Updated 7 June 2001
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