Election Prediction Project
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British General Election
Blyth Valley

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Ronnie Campbell
Conservative Party:
Wayne Daley
Liberal Democratic Party:
Jeffrey Reid

Incumbent:
Ronnie Campbell

97 Result:
Ronnie Campbell
27,27664.2%
Barbara Musgrave
5,66613.3%
Andrew Lamb
9,54022.5%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
42,48268.78%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
24,54249.9%
7,69115.6%
16,49833.5%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
49,20180.2%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1621.7%
16-2412.5%
25-3922.8%
40-6527.2%
65 <15.7%

Ethnic Origin:
White99.4%
Black0.1%
Indian/Pakistani0.2%
Other non-white0.3%

Employment:
Full Time65.0%
Part Time16.0%
Self Employed6.6%
Government Schemes2.6%
Unemployed9.8%

Household SEG:
I - Professional4.2%
II - Managerial/Technical25.2%
III - Skilled (non-manual)16.0%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)29.2%
IV - Partly Skilled17.1%
V - Unskilled4.5%

Misc:
Own Residence63.0%
Rent Residence36.0%
Own Car(s)63.1%
Submissions
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05/05/01 JR Email:
On the face of it, this is a rock-hard Labour seat. But Labour have had their problems over the years. Labour MP Eddie Milne played a key role in uncovering the Poulson affair, a scandal involving a crooked builder who bribed politicians of both parties to cash in on the council-housing and slum clearance boom of the sixties. Indeed, T Dan Smith, leader of the nearby Newcastle City Council, was sent to jail. Milne was deselected by his local party in 1974 as a result of his role in blowing open the network of corruption, but ran as an independent. In the February election he defeated Labour cabinet minister Ivor Richard, who had been drafted in after his London seat had been abolished in boundary changes. Milne lost in the October 1974 election to official Labour candidate John Ryman (an absentee MP, who after his retirement in 1987 was sent to prison for swindling middle-aged ladies out of their savings). Milne turned his attention to local politics, forming a Blyth Valley Independent Labour Party which took control of the borough council. In 1979 he was still able to come within 7000 votes of Ryman. In 1983 and 1987 it was the SDP that capitalised on the rebel Labour tradition here, with their candidate Rosemary Brownlow finishing just 900 votes behind Labour's Ronnie Campbell on the latter occasion. In 1992, the Liberal Democrats, as successors to the SDP, could not match this result, losing by 8000. Last time their challenge faded away almost completely, and after almost thirty years Blyth Valley has returned to its natural state as a safe Labour seat.
07/05/01 Pseudonym 'Disraeli' Email:
Clearly the fact that Labour's majority in the constituency has remained consistently strong suggests that this 'safe seat' is likely to remain Labour in June 2001.

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Last Updated 9 May 2001
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