Election Prediction Project
British General Election

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Labour Party:
Paul Brannen
Conservative Party:
Peter L. Atkinson
Liberal Democratic Party:
Philip Latham
UK Independence Party:
Dr. Paterson

Peter Atkinson

97 Result:
Ian McMinn
Peter Atkinson
Philip Carr
Total Vote Count / Turnout

92 Result: (Redistributed)
Total Vote Count / Turnout

Demographic Profile:
< 1618.8%
65 <20.8%

Ethnic Origin:
Other non-white0.3%

Full Time60.0%
Part Time17.2%
Self Employed16.3%
Government Schemes1.3%

Household SEG:
I - Professional9.9%
II - Managerial/Technical40.9%
III - Skilled (non-manual)10.9%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)21.9%
IV - Partly Skilled10.5%
V - Unskilled4.5%

Own Residence69.1%
Rent Residence25.3%
Own Car(s)76.2%
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18/04/01 CM Email:
Although Tory MP Peter Atkinson squeaked home in 1997 by just 222 votes, this had previously been a relatively safe Tory seat. Hexham is overwhelmingly rural and has been hard hit by the Labour government - foot in mouth being just the latest blow. If Labour couldn't win this one last time, I can't see them doing it now. Tory hold.
28/05/01 Ian McMinn Email:
As you will see from my name, I was the Labour candidate at the 1997 election. I believe that you have misjudged Hexham as a Conservative cert for the following reasons:-
1) Whilst on a map the constituency may look 'overwhelmingly rural', the vast majority of the electorate in fact live in the very urban Tyne Valley settlements;
2) Until the 1997 election, neither of the two main opposition parties had got within striking distance of the Conservatives. The anti-Conservative vote, following boundary changes in the early 80's, split initially in favour of the Liberals (1983 and 1987). In 1992 Labour sneaked into 2nd place for the first time which gave the 1997 campaign some credibility. However, the problem on the doorstep was convincing voters, particularly in the Ponteland area (12000 voters) where Labour had no local presence and Liberals were the traditional opposition, that Labour could win. Many anti-Conservative votes stayed with the Liberals as tactical voters were unsure how to oust the Conservative. This time there is no uncertainty;
3) As the Labour Party machine had much better targets to aim for than Hexham, the local campaign received no outside support and local members (and myself as candidate!) were asked to help in the neighbouring target seats of Tynemouth and Stockton. This time there is support from the centre and there have been several visits from Ministers.
I wish you well in your project and hope that the above information gives you a little more insight into the Hexham situation. You may not be as shocked by the election result as Peter Atkinson was in 1997!

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Last Updated 6 June 2001
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