Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Sedgefield

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Rt. Hon. Anthony C.L. Blair
Conservative Party:
Douglas Carswell
Liberal Democratic Party:
Andrew Duffield
UK Independence Party:
Andrew Spence
Independent:
Brian Gibson
Monster Raving Loony Party:
The Mad Cow-Girl'

Incumbent:
Rt Hon Tony Blair

97 Result:
Tony Blair
33,52671.2%
Elizabeth Noel
8,38317.8%
Ron Beadle
3,0506.5%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
47,11672.57%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
31,39162.2%
14,16128.1%
4,8979.7%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
50,44976.3%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1620.3%
16-2412.2%
25-3920.8%
40-6528.2%
65 <18.5%

Ethnic Origin:
White99.6%
Black0.1%
Indian/Pakistani0.1%
Other non-white0.3%

Employment:
Full Time64.7%
Part Time14.4%
Self Employed8.6%
Government Schemes2.6%
Unemployed9.6%

Household SEG:
I - Professional4.9%
II - Managerial/Technical27.1%
III - Skilled (non-manual)9.1%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)32.9%
IV - Partly Skilled18.3%
V - Unskilled4.0%

Misc:
Own Residence58.7%
Rent Residence39.5%
Own Car(s)63.4%
Submissions
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12/04/01 NG Email:
Not much doubt about this one. Will the Sedgefield electorate reject Tony Blair? I think not.
22/04/01 GK Email:
Hmm... I think Tony Blair might win this one.
28/05/01 A.S. Email:adma@interlog.com
Forget about defeat; even as a rookie elected in the 1983 Labour disaster, A.C.L. Blair eked out an 18.5% margin over his Tory opponent. Instead, for academic sake, watch for whatever passes for local swing--will there be faint Sedgefieldian backlash against that obnoxiously grinning mug emblazoned on all the papers and TV screens? Maybe; maybe not--but that's what makes electoral dissection so fun...

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Last Updated 28 May 2001
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