Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Stockton South

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Dari J. Taylor
Conservative Party:
Timothy R. Devlin
Liberal Democratic Party:
Suzanne C. Fletcher

Incumbent:
Dari Taylor

97 Result:
Daria Taylor
28,79055.2%
Tim Devlin
17,20533.0%
Peter Monck
4,7219.1%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
52,11676.12%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
18,43535.6%
23,33145.0%
10,08019.4%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
51,84679.3%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1622.5%
16-2412.2%
25-3923.0%
40-6527.5%
65 <14.8%

Ethnic Origin:
White97.6%
Black0.2%
Indian/Pakistani1.6%
Other non-white0.6%

Employment:
Full Time62.4%
Part Time17.9%
Self Employed7.5%
Government Schemes2.1%
Unemployed10.1%

Household SEG:
I - Professional8.9%
II - Managerial/Technical29.2%
III - Skilled (non-manual)14.9%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)26.0%
IV - Partly Skilled12.5%
V - Unskilled3.7%

Misc:
Own Residence75.4%
Rent Residence23.8%
Own Car(s)70.2%
Submissions
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12/04/01 NG Email:
Dari Taylor should not face too many problems in holding Stockton South. Although she would have effectively lost the seat to the Tories on the 1999 European result, the Labour vote held up reasonably well compared with some other Labour 97 wins. Moreover, the Tory candidate, Tim Devlin (despite being MP for ten years between 1987 and 1997), is quite unpopular locally and may deter some Tories from voting this time round. The dark horses are the Lib Dems who, as the SDP, held the seat from 1983 to 1987, but have gradually seen their vote fall here. There was obviously massive tactical voting for Labour at the last election but their vote has been rising gradually since then and will be boosted by their candidate, a well-known local councillor. Okay, so it probably won't unthrone Dari Taylor but should be interesting to see what happens.

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Last Updated 12 April 2001
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