Election Prediction Project
British General Election

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Labour Party:
Alan Campbell
Conservative Party:
Karl Poulsen
Liberal Democratic Party:
Penelope Reid

Alan Campbell

97 Result:
Alan Campbell
Martin Callanan
Andrew Duffield
Total Vote Count / Turnout

92 Result: (Redistributed)
Total Vote Count / Turnout

Demographic Profile:
< 1618.4%
65 <22.3%

Ethnic Origin:
Other non-white0.4%

Full Time62.1%
Part Time17.4%
Self Employed8.9%
Government Schemes2.0%

Household SEG:
I - Professional8.4%
II - Managerial/Technical34.0%
III - Skilled (non-manual)17.1%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)22.3%
IV - Partly Skilled11.2%
V - Unskilled4.3%

Own Residence71.3%
Rent Residence27.7%
Own Car(s)59.7%
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18/04/01 CM Email:
Although Labour took this seat relatively comfortably in 1997, prior to this it had been Tory since 1950. The Tories have won every set of local elections in the constituency since 1997 (by a massive 23% in 2000) and also won the seat in the Euro elections. The Conservative candidate Karl Poulsen has been working the seat hard for some time and this, combined with an anonymous Labour MP and non-exisitent Labour campaign, gives the Tories a good chance of taking the seat back.
17/05/01 Paul R Davis Email:pdavis1@vtown.com.au
All the above is sound enough logically, but nevertheless 11,237 is a huge majority to turn round in one election, and would require an 11% swing. Although National Swings may be a thing of the past, there are 140 Labour Seats which require lower swings to go Tory than this one. A Tory victory here transposed into a National picture would put the Conservatives ahead of Labour and not far off an overall majority. Nor was this a suprise Labour win last time. It had been won by the Conservatives by only 500 in 1992. The 1992 Notional Result, after boundary chnages, pushed this out to 3,500 but may have been too favourable to the Conservatives. Even if accurate, it was still a "must win" seat for Labour. A pro-Tory swing is near certain but I do not think it will be enough to win.
28/05/01 CM Email:
The previous correspondent is falling into the trap of applying a uniform swing across the country. Don't forget that Tynemouth stayed Tory through every previous Labour government in the last 50 years - even the landslide of 1966. The only time it's fallen to Labour has been in the highly unusual circumstances of 1945 and 1997. We're now 2 and a bit weeks into the campaign and I stick to my previous prediction. I've had 4 leaflets from the Tories and only one from Labour, who don't appear to be working too hard. Tory gain.

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Last Updated 6 June 2001
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