Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.org
British General Election
Crosby

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Candidates:
Labour Party:
Claire Curtis-Thomas
Conservative Party:
Robert Collinson
Liberal Democratic Party:
Timothy Drake

Incumbent:
Ms Claire Curtis-Thomas

97 Result:
Clare Curtis-Tansley
22,54951.1%
Malcolm Thornton
15,36734.8%
Paul McVey
5,08011.5%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
44,14177.18%

92 Result: (Redistributed)
13,73828.7%
23,32948.7%
9,55820.0%
Total Vote Count / Turnout
47,86281.3%

Demographic Profile:
Age:
< 1619.4%
16-2412.1%
25-3919.2%
40-6528.9%
65 <20.5%

Ethnic Origin:
White99.1%
Black0.2%
Indian/Pakistani0.2%
Other non-white0.5%

Employment:
Full Time61.0%
Part Time17.5%
Self Employed10.6%
Government Schemes1.7%
Unemployed9.2%

Household SEG:
I - Professional8.8%
II - Managerial/Technical39.2%
III - Skilled (non-manual)19.7%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)18.1%
IV - Partly Skilled8.0%
V - Unskilled2.9%

Misc:
Own Residence80.3%
Rent Residence18.9%
Own Car(s)70.6%
Submissions
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19/04/01 JR Email: robertsat13@cwcom.net
The first Labour gain of the night in 1997 - and rather surprising in a former rock solid Tory seat (though Shirley Williams won it for the then newly formed SDP in a famous 1981 byelection). Clare Curtis Thomas is an assiduous constituency MP and will win again. The Labour vote held up relatively well in the 2000 local elections. Worry for Labour is many of their votes are concentrated in Church Ward at the south end towards Bootle. This area is relatively more deprived and could be prone to low turnout.
05/06/01 S.McKenna Email:stuart_mckenna@blueyonder.co.uk
Despite Ms. Curtis Thomas' constant press appearances, her personal standing within the constituency is less than the press would suggest. Her failure (through lack of understanding of Parliament) to correctly propose her Private Members Bill on the Mersey Tunnel privatisation, cost the borough a huge amount of money. She has a very poor record on Parliamentary attendance, and as a result her personal vote will drop from that of 1997.
Secondly, there is a socialist Labour Party candidate standing in the Constituency, splitting the Labour vote in the south end of the Constituency (Labour heartlands), and no UKIP/Referendum candidate to take votes from dissaffected Conservatives.

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Last Updated 5 June 2001
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