Election Prediction Project
British General Election
Lancaster and Wyre

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Labour Party:
T. Hilton Dawson
Conservative Party:
Stephen P. Barclay
Liberal Democratic Party:
Liz Scott
Green Party:
John Whitelegg
UK Independence Party:
John Whittaker

Hilton Dawson

97 Result:
Hilton Dawson
Keith Mans
John Humberstone
Total Vote Count / Turnout

92 Result: (Redistributed)
Total Vote Count / Turnout

Demographic Profile:
< 1617.9%
65 <23.1%

Ethnic Origin:
Other non-white0.5%

Full Time58.9%
Part Time18.4%
Self Employed16.1%
Government Schemes1.1%

Household SEG:
I - Professional8.3%
II - Managerial/Technical34.1%
III - Skilled (non-manual)15.0%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)24.0%
IV - Partly Skilled12.2%
V - Unskilled5.1%

Own Residence83.9%
Rent Residence14.2%
Own Car(s)74.2%
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24/04/01 JR Email:
Lancaster had been a long-term Labour target but they almost lost hope when boundary changes cost Lancashire one of its sixteen seats - and most of the abolished Tory stronghold of Wyre was added to Lancaster. Hilton Dawson amazed many by pulling 1200 votes ahead on Election night. Labour have local difficulties here - the local Labour council cost taxpayers 1million+ on a failed bid to build a theme park, and Hilton Dawson was deputy leader of the Council at the time. He can be relieved the Tories made little capital out of the affair; the beneficiaries of the backlash in local elections were the Greens and a new 'Morecambe Bay Independent Party'. Labour are putting loads of resources into this one, and Dawson has got some national recognition for sponsoring an NSPCC-inspired Private Members' Bill to establish a Childrens' Rights Commissioner. Too close to call but probably leaning Tory at the moment.
14/05/01 Paul Bristow Email:paul_bristow@hotmail.com
Lancaster & Wyre will indeed be a clse contest but one which will be ultimately fruitful for the Conservatives. In 1997 the Tories had a poor campaign here with the Keith Manns MP helping out other candidates in the North West rather than concentrating on his constituency. Labour in comparison ran a good campaign. The Tories are not making the same mistake again and have an energetic young candidate (just 29) in Steve Barclay. Lancaster is more prone to Labour with the Wyre being solidly Tory. Locally Labour have suffered in council elections in both Wyre and Lancaster. It is expected that they will recover in Lancaster come the General Election. Both sides have foot soldiers from the local university but the a strong showing by either the Liberal Democrat or Green candidate will spell the end for Labour and Mr Dawson in Lancaser & Wyre.

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Last Updated 6 June 2001
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