Election Prediction Project
British General Election
Liverpool, Riverside

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

cratic Party:
Richard Marbrow
Labour Party:
Louise J. Ellman
Conservative Party:
Judith Edwards
Liberal Democratic Party:
Richard Marbrow
Socialist Alliance:
Catherine Wilson

Mrs Louise Ellman

97 Result:
Louise Ellman
David Sparrow
Beatrice Fraenkel
Total Vote Count / Turnout

92 Result: (Redistributed)
Total Vote Count / Turnout

Demographic Profile:
< 1620.5%
65 <18.9%

Ethnic Origin:
Other non-white3.9%

Full Time49.2%
Part Time11.7%
Self Employed5.9%
Government Schemes3.8%

Household SEG:
I - Professional5.4%
II - Managerial/Technical22.5%
III - Skilled (non-manual)11.0%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)18.1%
IV - Partly Skilled16.5%
V - Unskilled8.1%

Own Residence31.0%
Rent Residence67.2%
Own Car(s)30.3%
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22/04/01 NG Email:
With a massive 21,000 majority, it's hard to see Labour losing here. However, it will be interesting to see whether the Lib Dems are able to consolidate the second-placing they won here both in 1992 and 1997, profiting from their new-found high-profile status in Liverpool with a huge majority on the city council.
19/04/01 JR Email: robertsat13@cwcom.net
Louise Ellman to hold again. Big question here will be turnout - the lowest in Britain last time at 51%, this is a very deprived seat with a large transient population. Abercromby Ward in the 1998 council elections produced the lowest turnout in Britain that year at just 9%. General election turnout could possibly fall below 40% on current trends
04/05/01 ERM Email:
Very different seat this from last time in demographic terms. It's also about 2000 electors bigger. Big increase in flats containing young professionals in the City Centre and there have been big Lib Dem advances in terms of Council seats held. Socialist alliance could also pull votes from Labour. Real battle of the Press profiles with Louise Ellman and LD Richard Marbrow regularly in the papers, although Marbrow has been quiet of late. With a turnout as low as it could be this seat could actually get fun with Ellman possibly slipping into scared territory for the election after next.
08/05/01 M A Email:
Riverside could be the one to watch in Liverpool, with an unpopular Labour MP and a strong Lib Dem candidate. The constituency has changed alot in the last 4 years with the redevelopment of the City Centre, a massive increase in the number of Lib Dem Councillors, and a popular Lib Dem Council. Although the constituency has a large base of solid Labour voters, they are just the sort of people who are most dissatisfied with New Labour and are likely to switch to the Lib Dems or stay at home. With a turnout of just 50% last time, which is bound to be lower this time (possibly as low as 30%) a narrow Lib Dem victory is possible.

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Last Updated 9 May 2001
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