Election Prediction Project
British General Election
Oldham East and Saddleworth

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Labour Party:
Philip J. Woolas
Conservative Party:
Craig Heeley
Liberal Democratic Party:
Howard Sykes

Phil Woolas

97 Result:
Phil Woolas
John Hudson
Chris Davies
Total Vote Count / Turnout

92 Result: (Redistributed)
Total Vote Count / Turnout

Demographic Profile:
< 1621.7%
65 <16.6%

Ethnic Origin:
Other non-white0.5%

Full Time64.0%
Part Time13.7%
Self Employed11.5%
Government Schemes1.2%

Household SEG:
I - Professional4.7%
II - Managerial/Technical29.8%
III - Skilled (non-manual)13.7%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)30.9%
IV - Partly Skilled14.4%
V - Unskilled4.2%

Own Residence70.4%
Rent Residence28.6%
Own Car(s)62.0%
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18/04/01 NG Email:
Oldham East and Sadleworth has proved a rather interesting fight over the last few years. A sensational win for the Lib Dems (against a massive increase in the Labour vote) just before the last election was followed by a narrow Labour gain in 1997. Since then, however, the Lib Dems have been building up their strength here. On a very poor night for the party at the European elections in 1999, they actually 'won' Oldham East and Sadleworth and have since gone on to take control of Oldham council. If the Lib Dems gain one seat from Labour on the night, it will probably be this one.
19/04/01 JR Email: robertsat13@cwcom.net
Pennine Liberals tend to be more right-wing than in the rest of the country and I could see the Tory vote collapsing to, say 5,000, as many Tories look at their party's third place finish last time and vote LibDem to beat Labour. Phil Woolas is a skilled politician, but at the end of the day if all the people who voted for him in the 1997 Labour landslide vote for him again he could still lose if there's a tactical squeeze on the Tory vote. I think this one will go LibDem but you never know
29/04/01 H Morgan Email:
Comparing like with like the Lib Dem vote was up 7% last May compared to the local elections in 1996 (the last before the 97 election) enough on its own for a Lib Dem win. The Conservative vote has also been very soft in recent years - the Conservative vote actually dropped in May 2000 despite Tory successes elsewhere and its nearly a decade since the Tories last won a Council seat.
05/06/01 A.S. Email:adma@interlog.com
I'll add a corrective non-prediction here, mainly because it's so terribly difficult to discern (especially given current policy shifts) what's going to happen at the ballot-box in these sparing yet critical Lib-Lab marginals where Labour has the upper hand. (And the Oldham race riots add yet another imponderable.) But it certainly would raise LD spirits if they finished with *4* seats in Greater Manchester (with none for the Tories, nya nya)...

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Last Updated 5 June 2001
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