Election Prediction Project
British General Election
Wirral West

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Labour Party:
Stephen Hesford
Conservative Party:
Chris Lynch
Liberal Democratic Party:
Simon Holbrook

Stephen Hesford

97 Result:
Stephen Hesford
David Hunt
John Thornton
Total Vote Count / Turnout

92 Result: (Redistributed)
Total Vote Count / Turnout

Demographic Profile:
< 1619.5%
65 <22.5%

Ethnic Origin:
Other non-white0.4%

Full Time60.8%
Part Time18.5%
Self Employed10.6%
Government Schemes1.6%

Household SEG:
I - Professional10.4%
II - Managerial/Technical36.6%
III - Skilled (non-manual)15.6%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)22.6%
IV - Partly Skilled9.8%
V - Unskilled2.5%

Own Residence81.6%
Rent Residence17.5%
Own Car(s)72.8%
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19/04/01 JR Email: robertsat13@cwcom.net
I cant see Stephen Hesford winning here - but then I couldn't see him winning last time either and he did. This is a rich area and traditionally so Tory the grass grows blue. Of the five council wards that make up Wirral West Labour only won one - Upton - in the last three local elections. However, the Tory campaign is said to be lacklustre and complacent, while Hesford works at every local issue under the sun. My guess is a Tory win by 2000 or so, but I could well be surprised on the night.
20/05/01 L. Coghlin Email:
This will probably be a toss up with voter intentions not known until the final days of the campaign. Labour managed to squeak by in 97 on Blair's enormous coattails; however, this time the Tories have a good chance to recapture this traditional Tory blue riding. It is completely dependent on Hague's national campaign. If he messages well -his coattails will be longer and the seat will swing back to the Conservatives.
28/05/01 IM West Kirby Email:
Were Ben Chapman (Wirral South (Lab))been the candidate this Constituency might have been more difficult for the Tories. Stephen Hesford got off to an appalling start: he backed the Labour Council's Policy on placing a Home for Disruptive children in Meols, he was suspended by the Bar Council for three months for Professional Misconduct. Even in the last year he has seen the Labour Fire Authority wish to close West Kirby Fire Station in the evenings.
The Labour campaign has been mediocre. Large parts of the Constituency have not received any literature.There seems to be little sign of local canvassing outside of Woodchurch and the Council estates (which comprise some 17% of the Constituency)
Lynch the Tory Candidate is helped by the lack of a UKIP Canddidate: last time the Referendum Party polled nearly 2,000 votes, this no doubt being boosted by previous MPs David Hunt's enthusiasm for the EU.
30/05/01 JR Email:
I'm changing my prediction for this one. Yesterday the Liverpool Daily Post published an opinion poll for Wirral West. The figures were Labour 56%, Tory 29%, LibDem 14%. OK, it was a small sample (about 370) and I've never heard of the outfit who conducted the poll. However, it can't be that far out!!!. There are signs of a big swing to Labour among professional middle class voters, and there are a lot of them in this part of the world. Also Stephen Hesford has an excellent record of local work. My aunt and uncle live in the Thurstaston area and speak very highly of him. Lastly the LibDems have some local strength, dominating the Prenton ward in council contests and last year they pulled off a surprise by grabbing Royden Ward (which includes West Kirby) from the Tories. A friend of mine has been working for Labour here and says that on the phones there's evidence of disaffected Tories switching to LibDem. Shock Labour hold predicted!!!!! the Tories.

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Last Updated 6 June 2001
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