Election Prediction Project
British General Election
Aberdeen South

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Labour Party:
Anne Begg
Conservative Party:
Moray Macdonald
Liberal Democratic Party:
Ian G. Yuill
Scottish Nationalist Party:
Ian Angus
Scottish Socialist Party:
William Mackie

Miss Anne Begg

97 Result:
Anne Begg
Raymond Robertson
Nicol Stephen
Jim Towers
Total Vote Count / Turnout

92 Result: (Redistributed)
Total Vote Count / Turnout

Demographic Profile:


Household SEG:
I - Professional8.8%
II - Managerial/Technical29.2%
III - Skilled (non-manual)23.8%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)19.3%
IV - Partly Skilled11.5%
V - Unskilled6.2%

Own Residence61.2%
Rent Residence38.8%
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12/04/01 NG Email:
A very complex contest awaits in Aberdeen South. It's a real four-cornered fight. A true-blue seat until 1987, it was won by Labour only to be won back again by the Tories in 1992, only to be taken back by Labour in 1997 (if only just). Then, in the 1999 Scottish Elections, it was won by the Liberal Democrats (but, to complicate matters even further, it was effectively 'won', in the regional vote, by the SNP). Who knows who will win this time? The Conservatives don't seem to have gathered back enough of their former strength and the SNP start just too far behind to be perhaps credible challengers (although the Tories may yet pull of a surprise win), so the fight will probably be between coalition partners Labour and the Lib Dems. One to watch.
15/05/01 JL Email:
This will be a LibDem gain. They have been steadily increasing their support over many years, and have built up a formidable organisation which resulted in victory in the Scottish Parliament election. This will put them in a position to squeeze the Tory and SNP votes.
It is not correct to suggest that the SNP effectively won this seat in 1999. The SNP won a "top up" seat in the area, but that was because their vote was much more evenly distributed, while the LibDem vote was much more concentrated in particular constituencies - the reason why LibDems in Scotland have always fared better than their overall vote wwould suggest under a "first past the post" system.
22/05/01 TF Email:
The popularity of Miss Begg has to be taken into account. She is well known and broadly respected across this diverse constituency. The other candidates are unlikely to launch personal attacks against the sitting MP as in the 1997 election. The Lib Dem strategy of declaring this a two horse race (Lib Dem v Cons.) in 1997 failed with the election of a Labour candidate, but they may be more accurate this time declaring it a two horse Lib Dem v Labour contest.
22/05/01 Christopher J. Currie Email:8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca
With the Tory campaign floundering, look for this to be a tight Lab/LibDem race. You can bet that both sides will be courting the soft Tory voters here.
27/05/01 Liam Email:
The tories will benefit from a growth in SNP support and disillusionment with Labour. There will be little tactical voting this time
03/06/01 JL Email:
I suspect Liam views are conditioned by support for the Conservatives. Their decline in this constituency, and the NE as a whole, has been greater and over a longer period than in Scotland in general. Thought of a recovery is an idle pipe dream. This is not a constituency where a major SNP campaign is to be expected - they have other seats in their sights. I foresee a collapse in the Tory vote and a win by the LibDems - despite the sympathy vote for Ms Begg.
05/06/01 DM Email:
The Tories cant win and know they cant. Their last MP has carpet-bagged to Glasgow Eastwood - which a recent constituency opinion poll shows he will not win. The new candidate is not much respected by the association where he is regarded by many as too doctrinaire and too robotic. Being gay should surely have made him less extreme.

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Last Updated 7 June 2001
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