Election Prediction Project
British General Election
Argyll and Bute

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Labour Party:
Hugh J.E. Raven
Conservative Party:
David Petrie
Liberal Democratic Party:
Alan Reid
Scottish Nationalist Party:
Agnes Samuel
Scottish Socialist Party:
Desmond Divers
UK Independent Party:
James McKenna

Mrs Ray Michie

97 Result:
Ali Syed
Ralph Leishman
Ray Michie
Neil MacCormick
Total Vote Count / Turnout

92 Result: (Redistributed)
Total Vote Count / Turnout

Demographic Profile:


Household SEG:
I - Professional2.8%
II - Managerial/Technical29.3%
III - Skilled (non-manual)18.3%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)20.9%
IV - Partly Skilled15.9%
V - Unskilled7.6%

Own Residence52.4%
Rent Residence47.6%
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24/04/01 JR Email:robertsat13@cwcom.net
Ray Michie is standing down after fourteen years' service. This doesn't augur well for the LibDems, many of whose MPs hold their seats on a personal vote, and the party finds it hard to hold on when that person's out of the picture (e.g. Inverness East & Lochaber, where the LDs slumped to third place last time after the retirement of Russell Johnston). The LDs have had problems getting a replacement candidate - they're on their second parliamentary hopeful here. The Tories held this seat before 1987, but I would only expect the Scottish Conservatives to make a modest recovery this time and it's probably too much to expect them to gain a seat they last won eighteen years ago. The SNP held the seat from 1974 to 1979, and while the LibDems won the seat in the Scottish elections, the SNP simultaneously topped the poll for the regional list PR seats (with the LibDems third). The Lib-Lab coalition government at Holyrood is not hugely popular and I would give the SNP the edge over the LibDems.
12/05/01 NS Email:Starling@nejs.fsworld.co.uk
The SNP were very confident of winning the FPTP seat in 1999, and they didn't. They say that they won the PR vote- Note, the British General Election is FPTP !!!! Given that the SNP gets more support in the Scottish elections than they don in the British General Election, I expect a Lib Dem hold!
23/05/01 Murray Ritchie and Robbie Dinwoodie The Herald
Poll warning for Tories and LibDems
It also seems fanciful to imagine that, with his personal profile as federal leader of the LibDems, Charles Kennedy could be in danger in Ross, Skye, and Inverness West, but that is a threat on paper. For new candidates in seats where sitting members have retired, such as Rae Michie in Argyll and Bute, or Robert Maclennan in Caithness, Sutherland, and Easter Ross, the trends in our poll appear alarming.
23/05/01 Malcolm Dickson, lecturer in politics at Strathclyde University The Herald
Labour truly lifted
Their (the Liberal Democrats) poor position in this poll suggests that the SNP would also pick up Argyll and Bute. There may be time to recover, as the campaign in 1997 showed it was the Liberal Democrats who benefited more than any other party from the cut-and-thrust of electioneering.

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Last Updated 30 MAy 2001
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