Election Prediction Project
British General Election

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Labour Party:
Sandra C. Osborne
Conservative Party:
Philip R. Gallie MSP
Liberal Democratic Party:
Stuart Ritchie
Scottish Nationalist Party:
James Mather
Scottish Socialist Party:
UK Independent Party:
Joseph Smith

Ms Sandra Osborne

97 Result:
Sandra Osborn
Phil Gallie
Clare Hamblen
Ian Blackford
Total Vote Count / Turnout

92 Result: (Redistributed)
Total Vote Count / Turnout

Demographic Profile:


Household SEG:
I - Professional6.0%
II - Managerial/Technical30.3%
III - Skilled (non-manual)22.6%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)18.9%
IV - Partly Skilled13.6%
V - Unskilled7.2%

Own Residence62.9%
Rent Residence37.1%
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13/04/01 John Lamont Email:
After the Scottish Parliamentary by-election when the Conservatives toppled Labour and the strong popular support for Phil Gaillie, a victory here looks like the Conservatives best hope in Scotland.
18/04/01 Dr Iai G. OLD Email:webmaster@alba.org.uk
The SNP's Jim Mather came second in the Scottish parliamentary by-election with Labour's Rira Miller in third place.
19/04/01 Christopher J. Currie Email:8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca
If the Tories win a single seat in Scotland, it will almost certainly be Ayr. However, I suspect that the Tories aren't going to win a single seat in Scotland. Granted, the Scottish Tories did manage to take the riding in the regional by-election ... but (i) the SNP always does better in by- elections than generals, and won't take as much of the vote this time, (ii) if memory serves me, the Scottish Tories only won because of a three-way split, and had less than 40% in the end result, (iii) Labour will probably get over 40% this time around, and the Tories will be hard-pressed to equal their '99 result. All signs point to a Labour hold.
11/05/01 J Smith Email:
Based on Scottish parliament elections and by-elections in recent times, the tories have demonstrated they still have the capacity to win in Scotland. Like a previous submitter said, if the Tories win any in Scotland, it'll be Ayr.
13/05/01 PSR Email:
I think that Labour could very well hold Ayr. Firstly, although the Tories won the by-election they didn't win the Scottish Paliamentary seat the first time and then Phil Gallie wasn't facing the sitting MP. Secondly, the Tories need a swing of 7.3% to win and I don't think that they will get that in many places least of all Scotland. Finally, the Tories winning the by-election could provide the threat that Labour voters need to turn out.
30/05/01 A.S. Email:adma@interlog.com
Gallie gets points for persistence; but why (other than the regional byelection evidence) *this* as the Scottish Tories' doorstep back into Westminster? Especially as redistribution swung Ayr into being a notional 1992 *Labour* seat--uh yeah, some target. Still, if Gallie does return to Westminster, it'll signify that Scottish Tories have sunk to the freaky-unexpected-pocket stature once identified with Liberals...
30/05/01 Colin Forth Email:
Labour's only by-election loss was this seat. As usual in by-electins it is hard to win when it is caused for avoidable reasons. The Labour MSP decided that his political career was going nowhere. Voters generally punish parties who make them vote for no reason. The by-election was also at the height of the horrendous s.28 debate. Where Labour made a principled stand and the Tories oppposed them. The SNP, in deference to Brian Souter, kept quiet about their true position. For the Tories, Pentlands is a better bet. The SNP will be pushing their resources into Kilmarnock.

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Last Updated 6 June 2001
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