Election Prediction Project
British General Election
Glasgow, Govan

Current Prediction:
Election Profile:

Labour Party:
Mohammed Sarwar
Conservative Party:
Mark Menzies
Liberal Democratic Party:
Robert Stewart
Scottish Nationalist Party:
Karen Neary
Scottish Socialist Party:
William McGartland

Mohammad Sarwar

97 Result:
Mohammed Sarwar
William Thomas
Bob Stewart
Nicola Sturgeon
Total Vote Count / Turnout

92 Result: (Redistributed)
Total Vote Count / Turnout

Demographic Profile:


Household SEG:
I - Professional7.1%
II - Managerial/Technical34.8%
III - Skilled (non-manual)22.4%
IIIM - Skilled (manual)16.0%
IV - Partly Skilled12.1%
V - Unskilled6.6%

Own Residence48.2%
Rent Residence51.7%
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27/04/01 JR Email:robertsat13@cwcom.net
The SNP must wonder what on earth they have to do to win this seat. In 1997 and 1999 they had so much going for them and still lost. Prior to the 1997 election Labour had been entangled in a bitter selection battle between New Labour entrepreneur Mohammed Sarwar and Old Labour sitting MP Mike Watson. It was a bitter fight, with allegations of racism and corruption being bandied around. Sarwar was selected and, despite boundary changes and the seat's SNP history - it was the site of two famous SNP byelection victories, for Margo Macdonald in 1973 and for her husband Jim Sillars in 1988 - won without too much difficulty. Just weeks after the Election Sarwar was placed under criminal investigation for allegedly bribing two of his minor-party opponents, and was suspended from the PLP (Labour's parliamentary caucus). He was later cleared but in 1999 many felt it was SNP candidate Nichola Sturgeon's to lose in the Scottish elections. Nevertheless Labour won, even though their candidate had all but conceded defeat to the media going into the count. I think Labour's luck will probably hold.
05/05/01 DJ Freeland
The Govan seat cannot be compared with the Govan by-elections of 1973 and 1989 as the seat has changed beyond recognition. Only 1/3 of the seat is the same as those seats. Looking deeper at the electoral history of the past few years, SNP chances have never been better. The majority at the Scottish Parliamentary Elections was down to 1300. Council wards in the seat are less and less Labour strongholds. And, the big problem that will overshadow this General Election is the prospect of a really low Labour turnout in heartland areas, and Glasgow is such an area.
16/05/01 Paul R Davis Email:pdavis1@vtown.com.au
The effect of Mohammed Sarwar's bad pre-election publicity might have been blunted by the national campaign last-time. His bad post-election publicity will not have been, although he was cleared of wrongdoing.
To many traditional Labour supporters, the government has had two good years and two bad years. There was probably enough gratitude to the Govt. for creating the Scottish parliament in 1999 to give Labour a narrow win. David Freeland is a good psephologist, who studies these matters carefully. There will be very low turnouts in many of Labour's inner-city seats. It is difficult to see that Mohammed Sarwar has much in common with the vast majority of his deprived constituents. The Scottish Socialist party candidate will cut into Labour's vote also. The SNP often claim not to be much interested in Westminster now, but they would love a Labour scalp. I think the SNP will gain this seat.
18/05/01 J.F. Breton Email:
Glasgow Govan is a SNP target. A very hard race between Labour and SNP. But, with the controversial selection of Sarwar, Neary will win in a very close race.
30/05/01 Colin Forth Email:
The SNP have lost Nicola Sturgeon to the Scottish Parliament. This will be a disadvantage to them. Sarwar, despite his difficulties, has performed reasonbaly well and silently. The selection controversy hung over him last time and the allegations of using asian voters to fix his selection undoubtedly caused the seat to become marginal. This time around there is less heat. The SNP's chance was in 1997 and they lost it. There is nothing to indicate that they have made up ground since then. The strength of the SSP might also help Labour there. The SNP have competition on Labour's left flank so disillusioned Labour voters who voted SNP last time may choose the SSP this time.

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Last Updated 7 June 2001
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